Corona Virus Panic

[DouglasVB]

Here's some positive news! Drive-through to-go liquor in California is now okay: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03...urants-to-sell-alcohol-and-for-you-to-get-it/

 

[kurtnkegger]

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/...delivery-takeout-denver-colorado-coronavirus/

Colorado has temporarily altered liquor license to do the same

 

[J1000]

And I was going to let the whole matter just drop except for this. I have never thought or called anyone here a moron in 20 years of being in and around the club. That is a false characterization. We have differences that flare in these kinds of discussions but in the real world none of that matters. I'd go to the ends of the Earth for anyone here (you included and we've not had the opportunity to meet) and do not insinuate otherwise.

I was just going to let it rest, also, except, also, for this part. I didn't say that. I said you were "basically calling everyone a moron," in other words "implying," "acting as if," etc. Maybe it's not your intention but it's my perception see some examples below:

I'll have to defer to your expertise, I'm just parroting what the CDC says.

The hysterical response and fear mongering over what's basically a virulent cold virus is curiously disproportionate.

Remain calm, all is well. It'll be over in 2 weeks or 30 days or 8 weeks or 12 weeks, right? Jesus, this is Newsweek saying this stuff, not Alex Jones.

What I have issue with is the media blitz and Chicken Little sky is falling response.
...
We can't suspend everything we believe at the drop of a hat because we feel emotional or it seems like a crisis. Step back, deep breath, think about it and then act.

 

[Rzeppa]

I see the story is about restaurants that are reduced to take-out/delivery being allowed to sell alcohol with the food they're selling. Here in Evergreen, there's a drive through liquor store in Bergen Park, and one in Golden too, down by Old Golden Road. Apple Jack's been advertising delivery for years. Yesterday I was buying some beer (before we go into Marshal Law LOL) and commented to the owner that I needed some now in case they deem his store "non-essential". He said "I think we're pretty essential", we both laughed.

I remember during the blizzard of 2003, when the power was out everywhere and all the beer stores were closed, now THAT was a catastrophe!

 

[AimCOTaco]

2003 Blizzard; I was in school at CU and the beer store was one of the only places that was open. We pulled home a sled full of cases and partied!

 

[3rdGen4R]

Wholly Cow... this thread is 15 now. I keep busy doing things around my house I've been putting off for years. I come on here to catch up with whats going on and it takes me a hour to read everything. WOW guys... what a cool community.

 

[simps80]

I will say this...as far as internet discussions go, and really could probably leave off the internet descriptor....this is as well thought out of a discussion as can be consumed in most arenas imo. I have sat on the sidelines Mostly because I have zero expertise in this arena, but have enjoyed the 'level' of intelligent and generally civil discourse on this forum bith currently as well as over the years, and said level continues to amaze me.

some top tier critical thinkers in here

 

[jps8460]

 

[Romer]

Some scary stuff in Italy

Italy called in the military to enforce coronavirus lockdown after 627 people died in 24 hours

More than 4,000 people have died from the disease in Italy, the country's civil protection agency said Friday -- more than any other nation -- and nearly 6,000 new infections were confirmed in the past day, bringing the total to more than 47,000 cases.

Also, evaluation of the data from china
. . . . . the impact on men appears to be worse -- at least among those who were part of this initial study. While 2.8% of the men diagnosed with the disease died, only 1.7% of women did

 

[kurtnkegger]

I work for the largest liquor distributor in the state, and with the news bars and restaurants were being forced to shutter in house patrons, I was expecting a significant drop in sales.

Let me preface this guys, I’m only a maintenance mechanic working on machines and conveyor systems that allow the booze to get out the door. I’m certainly not the guy who crunches numbers or looks to sales trends...

Never less, we are still seeing nearly normal number of cases shipping out of the warehouse.

For the sake of job security...I’m asking you all to keep drinking decent whiskey, wine and beer.

“Party on Wayne....Party on Garth”

 

[Corbet]

I posted this to FB earlier as of all the statistical studies I’ve read this one seemed to have the best data IMHO.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

Marianne also read somewhere today, sorry I don’t have the original link that type A blood folks were at the highest risk and type O the lowest. WebMD link for what it’s worth.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200320/blood-type-may-affect-covid19-risk-study

 

[Rzeppa]

Reportedly a high fraction of men in China are smokers (>50%), versus a smaller fraction of women. From what I have read, this could certainly explain why more men in China succumbed to coronavirus than women. Their lungs were already damaged.

 

[CORunner]

Couple of interesting developments on outdoor recreation:

- All the ski resorts have closed down, so now the back country ski/snowboard stores are swamped and some busier than they have ever been. Most of the ski resorts normally allow uphill access via skinning if the resorts are closed, but now most have shut that down because too many people have shown up. Per this article, hundreds of people showed up to A Basin the day after they shut down the lifts. My biggest worry is that a bunch of people will head to the back country without the proper knowledge and training for avalanche awareness.
https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/21/uphill-skiing-resorts-touring-boom-vail-resorts-closure/


- Department of the Interior waived entrance fees to the national parks. "National Parks are suspending entrance fees so people can 'enjoy the outdoors' "
So everyone is flooding the National Parks to the point where they are overcrowded and understaffed.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/national-parks-are-staying-open-is-that-safe.html

Mayor of Estes Park asked Rocky Mountain National Park to close because Estes was getting overrun with tourists.
https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-rocky-mountain-national-park-shutdown/



On a positive note, I can now get takeout booze from my local dine-in restaurants that have converted to curbside pick up!

 

[Romer]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 interesting read. I hope what the author says related to Chart 13 is true is that weeks not months are required with the hammer response

this is linked in the article and a source for its data
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

You'll like this video.



His bio with discussion of this video: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg

Genau. Stimmt.

 

[J1000]

US virus testing faces new headwind: Lab supply shortages

https://apnews.com/4aac3a10664097f38633149367ac3928

First, some of the coronavirus tests didn’t work. Then there weren’t enough to go around. Now, just as the federal government tries to ramp up nationwide screening, laboratory workers are warning of a new roadblock: dire shortages of testing supplies.​

​

The shortages are the latest stumble in a botched effort to track the spread of coronavirus that has left the U.S. weeks behind many other developed countries. Dwindling supplies include both chemical components and basic swabs needed to collect patient samples.​

​

There are “acute, serious shortages across the board” for supplies needed to do the tests, said Eric Blank, of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, which represents state and local health labs.​

My purpose of posting this article is to highlight in our modern economy the question of "essential" isn't simple. The economy, especially in the 20th and 21st centuries, requires highly specialized labor, what Adam Smith first referred to as division of labor. Each individual performing their skill to allow someone else to do what they are skilled in doing.

In this case a biotech lab researcher needs lab supplies which requires a whole supply chain of people and resources. It's impossible to know who and what was essential in this series of transactions. We can generalize processes at a high level but following every branch in the tree to its root would mean following every other process to its root.

A lab container requires a factory that requires machines and raw materials which required factories and raw materials to produce and everyone in the chain required infrastructure, transportation, fuel, food and shelter. Every job is essential for some reason otherwise it wouldn't exist. The economy has developed over the years to figure these things out.

As the economy is prevented from churning entropy grows, making it harder for all the components to get it going again. These shortages are occurring and it's only been a week or two of widespread domestic disruption and of course a lot of random global disruption.

The classical economic introduction to explain division of labor is "I, Pencil" written in 1958 by Leonard E. Read, which is a story about the steps it takes for a simple pencil to come into existence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Pencil

Link to the PDF book: https://fee.org/media/33856/i-pencil-final-proof-for-website-pdf.pdf

Or this TED talk about building a toaster.

The supply shortages are something that the media has blown out of proportion and in some cases they simply are not true.

In the press conference yesterday, Secretary Azar said about the reported shortages "usually its that the lab people don't understand there are alternatives in the marketplace," "we've had to put out truths and myths about that." "Our people bought 200,000 swabs on the open market and I just sent a letter to every governor sending them swabs."

At 1:15:54 in the following video:

 

[ccslider]

There should a separate thread for Corona debate

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

You have to wonder if when the Dems began beating the impeachment drum if their real motivation was to collapse the economy and let that be their vehicle to victory next year. Pelosi and Schiff screwed the pooch on that one, but then the media started beating the Covid drum. The economy has tanked and surprise, surprise, the Dems have all fallen in line, like ducks in a row, behind Biden. Flipping Biden. I am not, and have never been, a Trump fan. When The Norther Colorado Business Report brought him to Colorado years ago it was obvious then who he was. If Trump had known last year what cancelling Pelosi and Schiff's trip to Belgium, Egypt and Afganistan would cost, would he have done it anyway? Yes, I believe he would. And, for some odd reason, I like that. Stupid though it may be.

 

[Mendocino]

Here's some anecdotal Natural Resources (mining) news:
I don't have any special knowledge, but do work in the mining software business and have a global view on what is happening to our people around the world daily. What we have seen so far is that while there has clearly been an impact to the mining industry from COVID-19, we still see mines operating and working to figure out how to work with social distancing. In fact, on Friday I learned that a major mine in Australia was considered "critical infrastructure" by the Aussie government and told to find a way to keep operating. I expect to see more of this in other countries as well.

Addittionally, steel mills about smelters are not easily just shut off, so most of them remain operational. This means we are likely to have the precursor materials that are needed ultimately for other goods "downstream". I fully expect shortages, but not everything is stopping.

 

[gungriffin]

Here's some anecdotal Natural Resources (mining) news:
I don't have any special knowledge, but do work in the mining software business and have a global view on what is happening to our people around the world daily. What we have seen so far is that while there has clearly been an impact to the mining industry from COVID-19, we still see mines operating and working to figure out how to work with social distancing. In fact, on Friday I learned that a major mine in Australia was considered "critical infrastructure" by the Aussie government and told to find a way to keep operating. I expect to see more of this in other countries as well.

Addittionally, steel mills about smelters are not easily just shut off, so most of them remain operational. This means we are likely to have the precursor materials that are needed ultimately for other goods "downstream". I fully expect shortages, but not everything is stopping.

I am investing in precious metal producers. I believe that they will do exceedingly well in the upcoming economic environment. I don't see many of them shutting down for very long, if at all. The manual labor jobs are likely skewed towards younger people in most cases. The young are the group who are seeing the quickest recovery of any age brackets. Many of the mining operations are more remote as well.

I didn't realize that countries would consider them essential operations, but that only further confirms that I believe some of the resource sector will be a great place to be invested.