Corona Virus Panic

[Rzeppa]

I got an email about the Corona Virus in the Rising Sun forums and accidentally replied, before I realized it was in the Cruise Moab committee's private section. I am not on this year's committee, although I have been on the committee for I dunno 12-14 years maybe? I chaired the committee for many years, and appreciate being able to see what this year's committee is up to, but didn't mean to poke my nose in there. I deleted my post as soon as I saw it was in their private section, sorry guys, didn't mean to! Just as I was TLCA President I am still on the BODREPS mailing list and can see what TLCA is up to as past President, I don't poke my nose in there.

But I saw that the CM committee is working on what to do about how the Corona virus panic (my term) might affect CM 2020 and potential cancellations. I understand that the committee is being proactive based on the widespread panic spreading though our country right now.

My general reaction is a major rolleyes (not the committee, but our general population). REALLY?

According to the CDC as of the middle of last week, ordinary influenza has KILLED over 18,000 Americans so far this flu season. Stop and let that sink in...when was the last news story you saw that talked about how lethal the ordinary flu is? According to the same numbers by the CDC, the ordinary flu has infected over 32 MILLION Americans so far this flu season. That's a tenth of our entire population! And the flu season isn't even over with!

This whole Corona Virus business just really makes me realize how vulnerable people are to the media [EDIT} breathlessly making a mountain out of a mole hill actually being right for a change [/EDIT] in order to gain eyeballs and ears and thus charge for advertising. Reminds me of that Eagles song, Dirty Laundry, tell you about the plane crash with the gleam in her eye.

 

[Hulk]

Hiya Jeff,

A lot of us feel the same way you do. However, we have vendors and participants asking us our plans, and our venue has asked for our written health plan for the event. So we need to do a little proactive communication at minimum. It seems like the whole country has gone crazy with canceling events and travel plans. We don't intend to follow in this path.

 

[ccslider]

I'm in Vietnam right now and you should see the panic here.

 

[Rzeppa]

Thanks Matt, just to be clear, I think the committee is doing a terrific job. It just seems like the whole country has gone off the deep end with irrational hysteria.

 

[bassguyry]

This probably belongs in the for sale thread, but...

I have two pallets of Charmin Ultra Soft TP for sale. Price is $eleventybillion, or I'll trade straight up for a Toyota 4WD. Act now, and I'll throw in some of my special homemade hand sanitizer (Wild Turkey) for the super low price of free.

I'm beginning to think we're doomed as a species...

 

[rckhound]

Currently in Baja and hardly anyone is worried about a thing here. Also plenty of TP. Funny part was that the airport here had more signage and educational material then DIA when we flew out.

 

[gr8fulabe]

I got an email about the Corona Virus in the Rising Sun forums and accidentally replied, before I realized it was in the Cruise Moab committee's private section. I am not on this year's committee, although I have been on the committee for I dunno 12-14 years maybe? I chaired the committee for many years, and appreciate being able to see what this year's committee is up to, but didn't mean to poke my nose in there. I deleted my post as soon as I saw it was in their private section, sorry guys, didn't mean to! Just as I was TLCA President I am still on the BODREPS mailing list and can see what TLCA is up to as past President, I don't poke my nose in there.

But I saw that the CM committee is working on what to do about how the Corona virus panic (my term) might affect CM 2020 and potential cancellations. I understand that the committee is being proactive based on the widespread panic spreading though our country right now.

My general reaction is a major rolleyes (not the committee, but our general population). REALLY?

According to the CDC as of the middle of last week, ordinary influenza has KILLED over 18,000 Americans so far this flu season. Stop and let that sink in...when was the last news story you saw that talked about how lethal the ordinary flu is? According to the same numbers by the CDC, the ordinary flu has infected over 32 MILLION Americans so far this flu season. That's a tenth of our entire population! And the flu season isn't even over with!

This whole Corona Virus business just really makes me realize how vulnerable people are to the media breathlessly making a mountain out of a mole hill in order to gain eyeballs and ears and thus charge for advertising. Reminds me of that Eagles song, Dirty Laundry, tell you about the plane crash with the gleam in her eye.

160million Americans get the flu vaccine every year. Even then, the 2017-18 flu season killed 61,000 Americans. According to the CDC & WHO, the Corona Virus spreads more easily (albeit a little slower than the flu), has no vaccine, and has a rough mortality rate of 20 to 40 times higher than the flu (likely to come down as they get more data & are able to do better analysis). So people should definitely at least take precautions, and the Cruise Moab Committee should definitely be putting some thought into it. It would be irresponsibly not to do so.

 

[MDH33]

Exactly what Abe, said. Don't underestimate it with no vaccine and high mortality. Also, our only frame of reference for how it's been handled on a country/continent scale is China, which is a totalitarian state. Here in the USA, where the inept government is doing nothing, it will be worse. Where I'm at, Iowa Universities are closing, likely public schools too and people are getting ready to stay home... Not too worried about toilet paper, but I always have extra food and can camp at home for awhile. I read on the interweb that if you smoke a bunch of marijuana, it kills viruses in your lungs, so you legal states are going to be just fine.

 

[Mendocino]

To underline the seriousness of this: I am on the leadership team of a large global business. We have people in about 40 countries and do business in about 155 countries. We have a largely global travel ban (air, rail, public transport) and are taking steps to manage the situation (primarily no travel or limited travel) for at least 12 months. The hope is it's a lot shorter, but the expectation is that this is a new-normal. Maybe we need a "run on dispensaries" to stop the virus and make everyone happy or asleep. Thaks for the tip @MDH33

 

[gr8fulabe]

Exactly what Abe, said. Don't underestimate it with no vaccine and high mortality. Also, our only frame of reference for how it's been handled on a country/continent scale is China, which is a totalitarian state. Here in the USA, where the inept government is doing nothing, it will be worse. Where I'm at, Iowa Universities are closing, likely public schools too and people are getting ready to stay home... Not too worried about toilet paper, but I always have extra food and can camp at home for awhile. I read on the interweb that if you smoke a bunch of marijuana, it kills viruses in your lungs, so you legal states are going to be just fine.

To add to this, China managed an extreme quarantine of 800 million people (varying levels of quarantine). I can’t ever imagine the USA finding a way to make 60% of Americans stay home.

 

[gungriffin]

I have been keeping track of this for about a 6 weeks now. It has the potential to be among the most serious infections that has occurred in the past 100 years. That isn't saying that it will be, but instead that it should be recognized for the serious threat that it represents. For the record, I didn't become concerned about the Ebola or SARS outbreak. This is really the first time I have ever been concerned about a viral outbreak for one primary reason- people can be contagious without showing any symptoms. Being asymptomatic can occur for up to a period of 27 days. There are other concerning elements, but that is my biggest. It isn't possible to stay clear of sick people when they don't show as sick.

This is a constantly evolving situation. It all seems to come down to how it is handled in the first few days of infections appearing locally. As an example, South Korea has done an amazing job of working to inform and empower people. They were able to get ahead of it. This was primarily due to offering testing to anyone suspected of carrying it or who wanted the test. As of March 2nd, SK had already tested 100,000 people. They were offering the tests in a drive through! The USA is not testing this at the level that they should be. Without getting into politics, the simple fact is that the ball is being dropped on getting ahead of this. There is a good chance that we may be doing damage control rather than prevention.


These are the best resources that I have come across so far.

Johns Hopkins map breakdown.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

BNO is based out of the Netherlands. The best amalgamation of all vetted stories confirming new cases. They are no hype and very careful to avoid double counting. My favorite news sources tend to be outside the USA.
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Love him or hate him, Bill Gates is simply brilliant. He has offered some really great articles and insights recently on COVID-19. He is also working to empower countries that need financial assistance to keep their citizens safe.
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/TheOptimist/coronavirus
Here is a paper Bill wrote that covers the facts on this outbreak. This was published almost 2 weeks ago, but has proven to be very insightful
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762#article_references

A daily update of the new stories with the outbreak. Ha ha ignore the name. The info is good and only vetted info makes it in.

 

[gungriffin]

To add to this, China managed an extreme quarantine of 800 million people (varying levels of quarantine). I can’t ever imagine the USA finding a way to make 60% of Americans stay home.

This is what I have been joking with friends about. Can you telling some people in Texas they couldn't do something?!?

The other side of this is that COVID-19 is only under control in China because they are presently quarantining people. There is no vaccine yet. The population of the cities in China are on a level I struggle to comprehend. Shanghai is 4 times the population of NYC. Wuhan has 3 million people more than NYC, and it is only a midsize city for China. Wow...

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

I'd really appreciate any source material detailing the 20-40Xs flu mortality rate. From what I have seen those least at risk are children and the highest risk group are older males who smoke. I don't think anyone has been able to independently verify any of the numbers the Chineses government has put out.

 

[gungriffin]

I'd really appreciate any source material detailing the 20-40Xs flu mortality rate. From what I have seen those least at risk are children and the highest risk group are older males who smoke. I don't think anyone has been able to independently verify any of the numbers the Chineses government has put out.

The CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for what people consider the normal flu is about 0.1%. The WHO came out with an estimate CFR of about 3.4 last week. The really important aspect to recognize is that it risk is vastly different for different ages. The older you are, the greater the risk.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

If you are healthy, the numbers below would likely be even lower. It is primarily people with preexisting conditions that are most at risk. This is why it is very important to avoid people with compromised immune systems if you feel there is any chance that you could have been exposed. An example: If Covid-19 is still spreading around the time of CM, after attending the event, it would be good for me to avoid visiting my older Mother for at least a week.

 

[gr8fulabe]

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Above is the March 6th update stating 3-4%. Earlier estimates said 2-4%, which is 20 to 40X .1% of the common flu. But again, those numbers are expected to come down as they get more data & learn the true extent of infections & such.

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

Those numbers and maps are interesting. I was reading a report from an independent group of researchers that went to China and their highest guestimate was 10X's/1%. They acknowledged the difficulty quantifying theirs and other's results because there is simply no way to come up with an accurate infection/death ratio. The total number of infections is unknown. The vast majority of people who contract viral infections will never see a healthcare worker. So far, the most interesting casualty of this outbreak has been the market.

 

[Rzeppa]

From https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html?searchResultPosition=26

Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from China, the center of the outbreak, were about 2 percent. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, found a lower rate: 1.4 percent.

The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In the current season, there have been at least 34 million cases of flu in the United States, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 flu deaths, according to the C.D.C. Hospitalization rates among children and young adults this year have been unusually high.

 

[gungriffin]

For a bit of levity, I will post this meme that is becoming popular. I was laughing about it and maybe someone else here will too.

 

[gungriffin]

Denver has the countries first drive through testing center! Still need a doctor's note though.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/ne...ng-facility-opens-in-denver-is-free-of-charge

 

[nakman]

the NBA has cancelled the rest of the season until further notice. Was watching the Nuggets tonight, they said Utah Jazz player Rudy Gobert tested positive... March Madness to be played in empty gyms? this whole thing is just surreal.