Jenny Cruiser
Hard Core 4+
We are closing on Monday and our rate was locked in at just over 3%. Thank you Corona virus! Can't wait to see what else Monday brings after watching today's bloodletting.
Corona Virus Panic
- Thread starter Rzeppa
- Start date
nuclearlemon
Hard Core 4+
still a little skeptical about a virus from china coming from the province with a major virology lab. a lot of weird diseases seem to originate in china. sars, bird flu....or is mother nature cleansing. let's face it, no one packs people in like china
DaveInDenver
Rising Sun Ham Guru
Old40Dog
Rising Sun Member
We're not talking the Black Plague, BTW which is also believed to have originated in East Asia guys. I'm 65 years old and have survived 3 near death issues in the last 3 years. Last one was just occurred in January 2020 suffering from a spinal staff infection and given only a 40% chance of leaving the hospital alive. Well, thank God, I made it!
Although I understand that I'm now at higher risk than most of you and that this is very contagious virus with many people are getting sick and unfortunately, some do die from the virus, I can't help but believe that this is being whipped up into the frenzy by the media. I'm going about my regular routine and going to regular group functions, if not cancelled by this mass hysteria. This too will pass in a month or two. Just don't believe everything little thing you see on the internet. Just an old guy's $0.02.
Although I understand that I'm now at higher risk than most of you and that this is very contagious virus with many people are getting sick and unfortunately, some do die from the virus, I can't help but believe that this is being whipped up into the frenzy by the media. I'm going about my regular routine and going to regular group functions, if not cancelled by this mass hysteria. This too will pass in a month or two. Just don't believe everything little thing you see on the internet. Just an old guy's $0.02.
This is not targeted at any one nor a suggestion to cancel the event (I'm registered and I really hope things blow over and we're able to enjoy a great week in Moab). But as someone with a PhD in molecular biology and some training in virology and epidemiology, I will say that this "social distancing" is absolutely a must-do, should probably have been started sooner, and is our only current option to decrease the total number of infected and dead from this pandemic in the U.S. It's not a new idea that was just invented as a hashtag, it's an important concept in epidemiology and outbreak control. If you look at the mathematical models, to account for all the "confirmed" positive patients right now with our limited testing, it's highly likely there are many thousands of infected people in the US right now.
The only data we have comes from other countries, but once they reached the number of confirmed cases that we already have, the number of cases starts to double every 2 days. This is exponential growth. Do the math for two weeks and the numbers get pretty scary real fast. Our hospitals do not have the capacity for this kind of rapid increase in the number of seriously ill and contagious patients, especially in rural places like Moab. The models (by people like the former director of the CDC) suggest that without behavioral change, there could be tens or even hundreds of thousands of deaths, depending on total % of population infected, mortality rate, and duration of outbreak. Perhaps we have an advantage compared to other countries because of the very large size of our country and more spread out population, but perhaps not.
Social Distancing can decrease the total number of people infected, and spread out the need for medical care over a bit longer time, allowing for better care. This is not a joke nor an over-reaction. It's going to be really rough for the economy, our daily life (mine included, our home business has completely dried up to zero since last week), but it's the best science-based reaction we can do to prevent large numbers of serious illness and death.
The only data we have comes from other countries, but once they reached the number of confirmed cases that we already have, the number of cases starts to double every 2 days. This is exponential growth. Do the math for two weeks and the numbers get pretty scary real fast. Our hospitals do not have the capacity for this kind of rapid increase in the number of seriously ill and contagious patients, especially in rural places like Moab. The models (by people like the former director of the CDC) suggest that without behavioral change, there could be tens or even hundreds of thousands of deaths, depending on total % of population infected, mortality rate, and duration of outbreak. Perhaps we have an advantage compared to other countries because of the very large size of our country and more spread out population, but perhaps not.
Social Distancing can decrease the total number of people infected, and spread out the need for medical care over a bit longer time, allowing for better care. This is not a joke nor an over-reaction. It's going to be really rough for the economy, our daily life (mine included, our home business has completely dried up to zero since last week), but it's the best science-based reaction we can do to prevent large numbers of serious illness and death.
DaveInDenver
Rising Sun Ham Guru
gungriffin
Rising Sun Member
I would contend that it is debt and not the Coronavirus that is the primary reason for the situation we find ourselves in. The zero interest rate policies of central banks over the past decade have only served to undermine and erode sound fiscal policy. The United States and other developed Nations have punished savers and celebrated debt. In a chase for yield, investors were forced to either take on ever increasing risk or select margin to amplify constantly decreasing returns. This has served to inflate some of the largest and most unsafe bubbles in human history. The coronavirus is simply a pin for the bubble we presently find ourselves in. If it hadn't been the Coronavirus, another pin would have found this bubble soon enough.
I deleted my post after I too researched it a bit. Thanks for copying it
DouglasVB
Rising Sun Member
We're supposed to get married in mid-April but many of our older relatives have canceled the last week and many of our friends from out of state are now considering cancelling because they're concerned what may happen. Still TBD if the wedding will go forward or not. At least none of the vendors and the venue haven't cancelled yet.
The plan was to honeymoon in the Philippines but there are very few flights to anywhere in Asia now. Plus there's concern of if all flights might be shut down like what's going on with the majority of flights out of Europe. Also now that it's a global pandemic, I would have to self-quarantine for two weeks before returning to work per my organization's current policy. On the all-hands call today, they indicated we may soon be prohibited to leave the country for vacation and it might also apply in the next few weeks to interstate travel. What a dang mess.
I have a half dozen work trips within the USA and overseas that have all been scrubbed in the last week. Conferences being cancelled. Seminars being cancelled. Site visits being cancelled. Everything through June is off now. We're also ready to work from home for the net several months if necessary.
There is a quarantine facility a few miles away from us with a bunch of people from one of the infected cruise ships. That's a bit exciting.
Interestingly, my uncle died from the bird flu a decade ago and I had a number of relatives die in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. I am hopeful we don't end up in a scenario like that.
At the very least, at least we're getting our national pandemic response capabilities for when something worse comes along in the future. So that's a silver lining!
The plan was to honeymoon in the Philippines but there are very few flights to anywhere in Asia now. Plus there's concern of if all flights might be shut down like what's going on with the majority of flights out of Europe. Also now that it's a global pandemic, I would have to self-quarantine for two weeks before returning to work per my organization's current policy. On the all-hands call today, they indicated we may soon be prohibited to leave the country for vacation and it might also apply in the next few weeks to interstate travel. What a dang mess.
I have a half dozen work trips within the USA and overseas that have all been scrubbed in the last week. Conferences being cancelled. Seminars being cancelled. Site visits being cancelled. Everything through June is off now. We're also ready to work from home for the net several months if necessary.
There is a quarantine facility a few miles away from us with a bunch of people from one of the infected cruise ships. That's a bit exciting.
Interestingly, my uncle died from the bird flu a decade ago and I had a number of relatives die in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. I am hopeful we don't end up in a scenario like that.
At the very least, at least we're getting our national pandemic response capabilities for when something worse comes along in the future. So that's a silver lining!
DaveInDenver
Rising Sun Ham Guru
The stock market dumping 27% of its value this month and the plummeting price of oil are really hurting. We're down to one income now. She's at least with the city government so a layoff for her will probably lag the burst bubble. The hysterical response and fear mongering over what's basically a virulent cold virus is curiously disproportionate. What you're saying is of course correct, the merry-go-round has had to fail for decades now. I guess you never can anticipate the black swan and especially the one that may cause the death rattle of the system, ironically.
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maxpowerzz
Trail Ready
Denver Public Schools just extended spring break to 3 1/2 weeks beginning Monday
same as Jeff Co and Boulder valley
StVrain (Longmont) schools closed now through spring break at the end of March..
DaveInDenver
Rising Sun Ham Guru
I'll have to defer to your expertise, I'm just parroting what the CDC says. It sounds to my untrained ears that it's a serious risk to those comorbid but generally it's not a death sentence. It would seem that, yes, if you end up in the hospital it's likely because you have serious symptoms like pneumonia. I'd expect statistically that 100% of people in a hospital would be there for some reason. So how is a SARS-CoV-2 illness any more or less worrisome than flu if you are NOT already at risk for complications from a respiratory illness?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html
Clinical Course
Clinical presentation among reported cases of COVID-19 varies in severity from asymptomatic infection to mild illness to severe or fatal illness. Some reports suggest the potential for clinical deterioration during the second week of illness.[2,5] In one report, among patients with confirmed COVID-19 and pneumonia, just over half of patients developed dyspnea a median of 8 days after illness onset (range: 5–13 days). [2] In another report, the mean time from illness onset to hospital admission with pneumonia was 9 days.[1] Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) developed in 17–29% of hospitalized patients, and secondary infection developed in 10%. [2,4] In one report, the median time from symptom onset to ARDS was 8 days.[3]
Approximately 20-30% of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and pneumonia have required intensive care for respiratory support.[2–3] Compared to patients not admitted to an intensive care unit, critically ill patients were older (median age 66 years versus 51 years), and were more likely to have underlying co-morbid conditions (72% versus 37%). [3] Among critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit, 11–64% received high-flow oxygen therapy and 47-71% received mechanical ventilation; some hospitalized patients have required advanced organ support with endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation (4–42%).[3–4,9] A small proportion have also been supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO, 3–12%).[3–4,9] Other reported complications include cardiac injury, arrhythmia, septic shock, liver dysfunction, acute kidney injury, and multi-organ failure. Post-mortem biopsies in one patient who died of ARDS reported pulmonary findings of diffuse alveolar damage. [14]
Approximately 20-30% of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and pneumonia have required intensive care for respiratory support.[2–3] Compared to patients not admitted to an intensive care unit, critically ill patients were older (median age 66 years versus 51 years), and were more likely to have underlying co-morbid conditions (72% versus 37%). [3] Among critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit, 11–64% received high-flow oxygen therapy and 47-71% received mechanical ventilation; some hospitalized patients have required advanced organ support with endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation (4–42%).[3–4,9] A small proportion have also been supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO, 3–12%).[3–4,9] Other reported complications include cardiac injury, arrhythmia, septic shock, liver dysfunction, acute kidney injury, and multi-organ failure. Post-mortem biopsies in one patient who died of ARDS reported pulmonary findings of diffuse alveolar damage. [14]
An overall case fatality proportion of 2.3% has been reported among confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China. [9] However, the majority of these cases were among hospitalized patients and therefore this estimate of mortality is likely biased upward. Among hospitalized patients with pneumonia, the case fatality proportion has been reported as 4–15%.[2–4] Among critically ill COVID-19 patients in China, the reported case fatality proportion was 49%. In a report from one hospital, 61.5% of critically ill patients with COVID-19 had died by day 28 of ICU admission. [9,15]
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Quickest way to see if the media is whipping Corona into a fake frenzy, is to say the presidential election is postponed indefinitely until pandemic is no longer a threat. Boom. Crisis cleared.
Nice charts above that keep things in perspective. My take away though- what's Germany doing differently????
Nice charts above that keep things in perspective. My take away though- what's Germany doing differently????
J1000
Rising Sun Member
Crazy videos of chinese authorities welding doors on apartment buildings shut or using other methods to block them with the residents still inside:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36aBNXIqaKI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF7Q-sw8Vm4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36aBNXIqaKI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JF7Q-sw8Vm4
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Rzeppa
Rising Sun Member
Well, I started this thread and my oh my how things can change in just a few days. My point was mainly about how seasonal flu isn't news, yet kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. I guess my main point is how the media are whipping people into a frenzy. One thing that I have learned since I started this thread, is the much higher mortality rate of this particular virus compared to the seasonal flu. It's somewhere around several times higher, to an order of magnitude higher. Hard numbers are pretty much impossible to come by, but yeah, it's a higher mortality rate than the seasonal flu and comparably contagious. Over the course of the stuff I've read over the past week, I have become convinced that so-called social distancing is the most effective way to slow the spread of the disease, reduce the total infection rate and prevent our health care system from becoming overwhelmed.
DouglasVB
Rising Sun Member
😂😂 I don't like being physically close to people anyway!
DanielChase
Rising Sun Member
Pretty wild, huh? With regard to the possibility of preventing our health care system from being pushed to the brink and then way beyond that.
DaveInDenver
Rising Sun Ham Guru
We'll cushion the hospitals but destroy the economy and the hoarding will starve half the population in the process. SARS-CoV-2, better known as Charlie Foxtrot 2020.