Corona Virus Panic

[Rzeppa]

the refreshments, man I haven’t heard that song since high school.

Past Commander Scott Yoder was the drummer, I was one of two guitarists in that band. We played every dive bar and a lot of larger venues up and down the front range during the 1990s. There is a good article in yesterday's Denver Post on the huge financial impact these public gathering restrictions are having on local musicians. We had a really good following, and in the 1990s before the widespread internet we had hundreds on the (snail mail) mailing list I would send monthly newsletters to.

For whatever reason the "insert link" button quit working for me, so here is the article:
https://theknow.denverpost.com/2020/03/18/colorado-bands-impacted-coronavirus/235390/

 

[jps8460]

Dave, I am not sure if you really believe what you are posting or just trying to stir up a debate. In a few weeks when it gets to thousands of people dead or tens of thousands will that be a number that you go, OK I guess this is a big deal. What is your threshold number? I know I said I was backing out, but I just can't believe what your posting.

My cousin is always complaining about the government and rights etc etc. He is Pissed about all the people in Miami on the beach and those who aren't trying to comply with what is being asked. His wife is out of work, but he is afraid for his parents.

Sure 137 deaths today is what you posted. As of 6 min ago on the CDC site its 187. Three days ago there were only 37 dead in the us.

Last week there were only 500 positive cases, now there are over 14,000. At that rate there will be over 2 million by the end of April, 4 million by the end of May

People your age get sick like the flu no big deal. My age it increases the chance of death and for my in-laws even higher. I can see why this is not an issue for you as it would be just like the flu or a cold for you and then you would move on. I am older and could die. My in-laws would likely die. If you and I were to hangout and go to a bar and you had it but didnt have symptoms, I would likely come home with it infecting my wife and then in-laws and that has a potentially tragic outcome. No big deal for those partying in Miami and not a big deal for you.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/new-jersey-coronavirus-family-members-killed/index.html This family got together for a simple family dinner and now 4 of them are dead and two others are in the hospital

"If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic, according to epidemiologist Neil Ferguson and others at the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team. "

What is the dollar value related to our economy you need to say 2.2 million dead is too much?

And what really complicates this is it will overwhelm the hospital system. Those with heart attacks or other alignments normally saved by a hospital visit wont have a place to go and will also die

You mentioned Cancer and HIV. For those partying on the beach in Miami, Cancer and HIV doesnt spread those by just being in the group. The people there were quoted as saying" if I get Corona I get Corona , no big deal" But then they take it home and give it to their buddy, sister or brother who give it to someone else who works at King Soopers and unknowingly gives it to my mother in law who could die. Their lack of concern is based on failure to understand consequences which is typical at that age.


We have had multiple at my work get sick over the last week all by causal contact with someone who didnt know they were sick until later. It is highly contagious. Much more than the flu

This is a huge deal. A life and death deal and I really don't get your stance on how your freedoms are being violated. I have explained my perspective, can you explain why you feel the way you do? Do you not believe the potential deaths could be 2 million? Do you not believe that people can unknowingly give it to others? Is there a point were you would feel the government should step in?

Like I said earlier, this is one of the few times we actually need government

It’s not black and white. I like what if’s....

what if the onus was placed on the 20% that were most likely to be killed by the virus while the rest formed a herd vaccination? What if instead of spending weeks figuring out how to give Americans a 1/2 months rent, they spent billions ramping up the medical industry to handle all the stuff they say they can’t handle?

Id bet dollars to donuts that between google patents, Dave, Ken, and Marco they could have a functional ventilator in less than a weekend.... it was invented in 1902 or something.

every school is empty, and there are 200k people now out of work in Denver alone. Pay them $12/hr to manually bag people lol.

the fact that the healthcare industry continues to play by the rules tells us more about governmental control than the shelter in place stuff.

What if all this sit at home and wait allows the virus to mutate enough to come back and nail all those that made it through the first time. What if the stock market goes to 0? What if 70,000 people commit suicide because they are in complete financial ruin.....

I like using what if’s..... because in all honesty we’ll never know how bad or how good it might have been. Either 7P and Murphy were in full cahoots, or something much bigger is at play.

all I know is that at this point we’re going to have to stick to the plan.

 

[OHUZJ100]

Id bet dollars to donuts that between google patents, Dave, Ken, and Marco they could have a functional ventilator in less than a weekend....

This is the best thing I have read in two weeks!

 

[Rzeppa]

Id bet dollars to donuts that between google patents, Dave, Ken, and Marco they could have a functional ventilator in less than a weekend.... it was invented in 1902 or something.

HEY! What about me! I designed and manufactured medical devices for over 3 decades before I went into 3D printing! OBTW, I build with and stock Taulman 3D Nylon 680, specifically made for gas or steam sterilization according to FDA standards...

 

[gungriffin]

HEY! What about me! I designed and manufactured medical devices for over 3 decades before I went into 3D printing! OBTW, I build with and stock Taulman 3D Nylon 680, specifically made for gas or steam sterilization according to FDA standards...

Time to work on 3D printing a ventilator. Then sell the plans for a mint!

 

[gungriffin]

Dave, I am not sure if you really believe what you are posting or just trying to stir up a debate. In a few weeks when it gets to thousands of people dead or tens of thousands will that be a number that you go, OK I guess this is a big deal. What is your threshold number? I know I said I was backing out, but I just can't believe what your posting.

My cousin is always complaining about the government and rights etc etc. He is Pissed about all the people in Miami on the beach and those who aren't trying to comply with what is being asked. His wife is out of work, but he is afraid for his parents.

Sure 137 deaths today is what you posted. As of 6 min ago on the CDC site its 187. Three days ago there were only 37 dead in the us.

Last week there were only 500 positive cases, now there are over 14,000. At that rate there will be over 2 million by the end of April, 4 million by the end of May

People your age get sick like the flu no big deal. My age it increases the chance of death and for my in-laws even higher. I can see why this is not an issue for you as it would be just like the flu or a cold for you and then you would move on. I am older and could die. My in-laws would likely die. If you and I were to hangout and go to a bar and you had it but didnt have symptoms, I would likely come home with it infecting my wife and then in-laws and that has a potentially tragic outcome. No big deal for those partying in Miami and not a big deal for you.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/new-jersey-coronavirus-family-members-killed/index.html This family got together for a simple family dinner and now 4 of them are dead and two others are in the hospital

"If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic, according to epidemiologist Neil Ferguson and others at the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team. "

What is the dollar value related to our economy you need to say 2.2 million dead is too much?

And what really complicates this is it will overwhelm the hospital system. Those with heart attacks or other alignments normally saved by a hospital visit wont have a place to go and will also die

You mentioned Cancer and HIV. For those partying on the beach in Miami, Cancer and HIV doesnt spread those by just being in the group. The people there were quoted as saying" if I get Corona I get Corona , no big deal" But then they take it home and give it to their buddy, sister or brother who give it to someone else who works at King Soopers and unknowingly gives it to my mother in law who could die. Their lack of concern is based on failure to understand consequences which is typical at that age.


We have had multiple at my work get sick over the last week all by causal contact with someone who didnt know they were sick until later. It is highly contagious. Much more than the flu

This is a huge deal. A life and death deal and I really don't get your stance on how your freedoms are being violated. I have explained my perspective, can you explain why you feel the way you do? Do you not believe the potential deaths could be 2 million? Do you not believe that people can unknowingly give it to others? Is there a point were you would feel the government should step in?

Like I said earlier, this is one of the few times we actually need government

I almost posted the mother and her 2 kids, but decided against it. It is so easy to get lost in the statistics in situations like this, and our minds don't process statistics in the same way as individual cases. I do believe that it is good to put up stories that humanize the situation that we find ourselves in. At least the mom didn't know two of her children had died before she died. That is just rough.
https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/c...F0hjvKgHbVFpHsXQEBcOZ4COy1JCHMoviAAqCYyzHEikc

That article actually led me to another interesting article about someone in Omaha who was sick with COVID-19 and was nearly completely asymptomatic. They were a leader at a church. This reminds me of the situation with the person at the doomsday church in S. Korea that was one of their first cases almost a month ago. They went on to infect nearly 50 people if I recall correctly. They called cases with people like this super spreaders. It makes sense though. It wouldn't require very many of these cases to just blow the infection rate through the roof.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/us/coronavirus-patients-stories/index.html

 

[gungriffin]

Some nice ultra dense reading about COVID-19 by the Imperial College in the UK. It doesn't paint a very rosy picture. Imperial College is the UK's Johns Hopkins or Harvard. I attached the PDF of the report.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/1...2-million-covid-19-deaths-in-us-510000-in-uk/

It also sounds like we might be getting closer to some pharmaceutical interventions that could be effective in mitigating the COVID-19 risks.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/18/progress-on-covid-19-treatment/

 

[jps8460]

HEY! What about me! I designed and manufactured medical devices for over 3 decades before I went into 3D printing! OBTW, I build with and stock Taulman 3D Nylon 680, specifically made for gas or steam sterilization according to FDA standards...

I didn’t know that. Where at?

 

[Stuckinthe80s]

A good read whichever way you think this is going...

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/1...depression-outweigh-the-risks-of-coronavirus/

 

[Romer]

I expect a lot of tl;dr. So be it.

I think the virus exists and is circulating. I think had no one said anything it would have made people sick, maybe a lot of people sick. For the majority of people it would have ranged from no symptoms to being a cold that wallops you. But we'd just have chalked it up to bad cold seasons and moved on.

How high is that risk? I don't know and won't ever be an expert. I just read stuff and try to avoid confirmation bias.

I do feel sorry for anyone who dies. But we all do and that's the fact of life. So we can't save every individual and that just is. The line in Fight Club sums it up, "On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."

When my mom was vulnerable to infection during chemo we had to sanitize and wear masks. It's not a binary situation. Your risk is a spectrum depending on your situation. In my mom's case it was that she had no white blood cells and her immune system was destroyed. Any infection was dangerous. To most people, even old and in marginal health, the risk isn't automatically dire.

But still anecdotes are not moving for me. They're not statistically important. They're emotional difficult, I don't deny.

So I do think we need to ratchet down the hysteria and remember you do not get sick nor die just by catching the virus. You get sick when your immune system is overwhelmed and you die because of complications of pneumonia. I also don't disagree with the need to damp the initial case load, e.g. flatten the curve.

All this leads me to is I do think it's plausible that the virus spreads relatively fast and that being novel there is no current immunity to it within anyone in the world. That does justify taking precaution and being prepared for being sick. It justifies those vulnerable take extra precaution to isolate.

While I have an ideal utopia I also know its impossible for humans to exercise and expect the complete self responsibility that would be required for spontaneous order to exist. Just go to the supermarket shows the the potential for any of us to be horrible humans. We can be both incredibly good and bad.

It's in our nature that bureaucracies will grow. That's why I am constantly presenting the argument that regardless if its public government or private organizations the problem is letting the "system" grow too centralized and for authority (in particular the authority to use force) grow in unchecked monopoly.

The problem I see is we are all flawed and there's nothing magical about being in government that makes a human suddenly benevolent. If people can lie, steal and cheat and that's the justification for regulating us then what's the balance when we give too much power to a government made from our population of lying, stealing and cheating humans?

And as far as chaos. We have no lack of government, many levels of it and still plenty of chaos right now.

Which is why I don't think government is the answer any more than I do unfettered big corporations. I don't want either. What we've got is two huge systemic monsters fighting each other and most of us just get crushed in the middle of it. I don't want one man or woman, a president anymore than a CEO, with the power to make mistakes that kill millions of people. Be that war, economic, heath or otherwise.

Dave- thanks for explaining your position. I can understand and appreciate your perspective. I admit I was a bit cranky last night when I made my post and appreciate your taking the time to lay out what you think and why. That made this discussion much more constructive for me

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

Say what you will. My flights today have been the best I’ve ever had. Sit where you want. I don’t drink, but booze was also free. Dave, good on you for putting in the effort. FWIW-Army CASHs have their missions as of yesterday and will be heading out next week.

 

[DaveInDenver]

Seriously? Now the barber shops too.

 

[Rzeppa]

I didn’t know that. Where at?

Colorado Medical and Mesa Laboratories. Dialyzer reprocessing machines, dialysis machine calibration instrumentation and sterilization validation instrumentation, both steam and EtO. I have signed up and volunteered my 3D printing services for any 3D printable medical device or component that might be in short supply to both health care providers and first responders.

 

[J1000]

Remain calm, all is well. It'll be over in 2 weeks or 30 days or 8 weeks or 12 weeks, right? Jesus, this is Newsweek saying this stuff, not Alex Jones. Who is their typical audience, what muck are they raking and what are the consequences? For a total of 137 deaths in the U.S. as of 3/19/2020. Fear, uncertainty, doubt ... chaos. But with everyone safely in their houses and no NHL/NBA/NASCAR to distract they have captive eyeballs.

Exclusive: Inside The Military's Top Secret Plans If Coronavirus Cripples the Government

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-...ns-if-coronavirus-cripples-government-1492878

This is just totally dishonest of you. Firstly there are 217 deaths in the US now and 14,000 cases.

Secondly, I posted a study by the CDC saying between 200,000 and 1.7 million could die and you just plain straight up ignored it and now we're back to this "only 137 death blah blah." Give me a break.

 

[DouglasVB]

In more positive news, the sun came up on schedule this morning. There are no zombies outside currently. I still have sufficient toilet paper.

However, we now have dire wolves and California grizzlies down the block from us: https://www.theonion.com/thousands-of-formerly-endangered-white-rhinos-flood-cit-1842410309

 

[J1000]

I'll try to sum up what I believe.

For someone so quick to ask others for sources and cast doubt, you sure love to talk about what you think and what you believe.

What you believe is based on a premise that is wrong:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...navirus-poses-serious-risk-for-younger-people


"Early data analyzed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that younger Americans are at substantial risk of experiencing serious medical problems from the coronavirus sweeping the globe.

That data runs counter to some of the early messaging from public health officials in other parts of the world.

A new CDC analysis of more than 2,400 cases of COVID-19 that have occurred in the United States in the last month shows that between 1 in 7 and 1 in 5 people between the ages of 20 and 44 in the sample of those who are confirmed cases require hospitalization, a level significantly higher than the hospitalization rates for influenza. The true percentage of young people who require hospitalization is likely much less, because many remain asymptomatic."

 

[J1000]

It was 137 at the time I posted.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

I just took this screenshot at 9:31AM March 20, 2020 from the CDC website I posted the link above. At the bottom of the pages it says their data was last reviewed 3/19/2020.

Those numbers were published from the CDC 22 hours ago I expect them to update very shortly. In the meantime how do you feel about 200,000 to 1.7 million Americans dying because we followed your advice?

 

[DouglasVB]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...navirus-poses-serious-risk-for-younger-people


"Early data analyzed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that younger Americans are at substantial risk of experiencing serious medical problems from the coronavirus sweeping the globe.

That's worrying.

 

[J1000]

It's just a really bad flu or cold guys. No big deal. I mean sure you can't climb the Rocky Mountains or go 4x4ing at high elevation anymore after you recover. It's really no big deal just overblown by the media:

https://www.sciencealert.com/even-t...ona-can-be-left-gasping-for-breath-afterwards

"People who recover after being infected with the novel coronavirus can still be left with substantially weakened lung capacity, with some left gasping for air when walking quickly, doctors in Hong Kong have found.

The Hong Kong Hospital Authority made the findings after studying the first wave of patients who were discharged from the hospital and had fully recovered from COVID-19.

Out of 12 people in the group, two to three saw changes in their lung capacity.

"They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly," Owen Tsang Tak-yin, the medical director of the authority's Infectious Disease Centre, told a press conference Thursday, according to the South China Morning Post.

"Some patients might have around a drop of 20 to 30% in lung function" after full recovery, he said."

 

[OilHammer]

Just a theory here, but I think part of the issue many Americans have with taking the warnings is that the traditional media has been used so heavily to bend public opinion to conform to an agenda. That's led to many, myself included, to ALWAYS question the motives behind what the media is telling me. I dig around, research, see if there's another side, then try to make my own interpretation of where the truth really lies. It's typically been somewhere in the middle.

Hey, not saying Covid isn't something to be concerned over, but the media has made me distrust them because they have abused their power for years by only reporting what fits their narrative. So who is telling them the narrative to push this time? How much of it is true? Remember, not telling the entire story is manipulating too. Dave keeps pointing out the numbers of cases compared to other causes of death and that's a relevant part of the story that the media won't share.