Corona Virus Panic

[OilHammer]

"Some patients might have around a drop of 20 to 30% in lung function" after full recovery, he said."

Let me take this one as an example of how I approach reading and digesting this article:

I read it. That sounds bad. Hmm....is anything left out of here that might be relevant? Did they have scans of the lungs before they got sick to compare to? Were the patients that had lung capacity problems also smokers or people who lived in highly polluted areas of town? Were these people athletic?

I'm sure they may have diminished lung capacity, but I don't jump right to assuming that the virus was the ONLY contributing factor to that. But hey, it drives clicks and makes the doctor a name for himself.

I get it. Not everyone has a robot non-emotional approach to life that I do. I look for root cause failure analysis in everything I do, and that makes me take ZERO at face value. I absolutely have to dig in and make sure I figured it out so things don't fail again.

 

[DaveInDenver]

Let me take this one as an example of how I approach reading and digesting this article:

I read it. That sounds bad. Hmm....is anything left out of here that might be relevant? Did they have scans of the lungs before they got sick to compare to? Were the patients that had lung capacity problems also smokers or people who lived in highly polluted areas of town? Were these people athletic?

I'm sure they may have diminished lung capacity, but I don't jump right to assuming that the virus was the ONLY contributing factor to that. But hey, it drives clicks and makes the doctor a name for himself.

I get it. Not everyone has a robot non-emotional approach to life that I do. I look for root cause failure analysis in everything I do, and that makes me take ZERO at face value. I absolutely have to dig in and make sure I figured it out so things don't fail again. There's a reason engineers don't make great Human Resource people....

You'll like this video.



His bio with discussion of this video: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg

 

[Romer]

There's a reason engineers don't make great Human Resource people....

I can relate to that

 

[J1000]

Let me take this one as an example of how I approach reading and digesting this article:

I read it. That sounds bad. Hmm....is anything left out of here that might be relevant? Did they have scans of the lungs before they got sick to compare to? Were the patients that had lung capacity problems also smokers or people who lived in highly polluted areas of town? Were these people athletic?

I'm sure they may have diminished lung capacity, but I don't jump right to assuming that the virus was the ONLY contributing factor to that. But hey, it drives clicks and makes the doctor a name for himself.

I get it. Not everyone has a robot non-emotional approach to life that I do. I look for root cause failure analysis in everything I do, and that makes me take ZERO at face value. I absolutely have to dig in and make sure I figured it out so things don't fail again. There's a reason engineers don't make great Human Resource people....

Lots of good questions and the answers will come with time. Two points, the study was out of China so who knows how accurate it is, but I have heard lots of other anecdotes from HK and Italy about lung scarring from this virus that even if some "recover" they still have lifelong issues. I wanted to find a "source" that said something similar rather than just "I heard." And secondly it's out of China so it's basically state sponsored propaganda and not "someone making a name for themselves."

 

[OilHammer]

Dave's video suggests that those scientists WERE making a name for themselves. It's an interesting video to watch. Some plausible points made in it.

 

[J1000]

You'll like this video.



His bio with discussion of this video: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg

Dave's video suggests that those scientists WERE making a name for themselves. It's an interesting video to watch. Some plausible points made in it.

I see nothing new or eye-opening or anything in this video. It is all the stuff people have been saying since December; "the flu kills more!" "coronaviruses have always been around!" "people die in hospitals when they are weak!"

China covered it up in the initial stages so yes it's completely understandable that they turned around and overreacted and then played themselves off as heros. https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-...-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html

"Dec. 30:

• Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.

...
Jan. 1: Wuhan Public Security Bureau brings in for questioning eight doctors who had posted information about the illness on WeChat.

• An official at the Hubei Provincial Health Commission orders labs, which had already determined that the novel virus was similar to SARS, to stop testing samples and to destroy existing samples."

 

[DouglasVB]

standing in line at stores

At least very locally, everything I'm seeing from the Nextdoor app and from friends in group chats is that all the lines at stores are doing very well at keeping 6 feet between everyone and not touching anything.

EDIT: Also we've gone from something like 20 commercial flights a day in and out of our little regional airport down to so far only four yesterday and one today. Normally we'd have about 50-100 private jets coming in today but there hasn't been a single one. (I have a perfect view of the runway and am directly under the main flight path in and out -- it's great for a plane lover like me!)

 

[J1000]

Every school in America is empty right now. Don’t tell me that for a few billion we couldn’t get some ventilators online.

There are over 17,000 ventilators in the federal stockpile now. Since all elective surgeries have been paused in the USA, the feds issued instructions on how to convert every anesthesia ventilator to be used to treat COVID19 which now literally opens up hundreds of thousands. They are in every dentist office, plastic surgeon, ER, etc.

This is a teleconference call with the 50 state governors yesterday. It's actually pretty interesting. It starts partway through and I didn't hear Polis at all so maybe he was earlier or I just missed him. Anyway, it sounds like they are gearing up for war:

 

[DouglasVB]

I hope the outcome of all of this is that everyone from each of us individually up to the federal government and everything in between is going to pay more attention to preparing for whatever might come at us including worst case scenarios. There's always another major disaster right around the corner.

 

[OilHammer]

Yup. Started that process on January 1, but this event came sooner than we hoped one would. The most important thing I think people can do, is improve their health and their finances, regardless of an event. I doubt most people have 6 months cash to cover an income shortage, and I'm thinking it's far better to have more. I've been through a bunch of recessions now, and we were past due for another. What I'm not a fan of, is the high cost of living in Colorado and cheap interest means a lot of people are pretty heavily leveraged. I've been thinking more and more about selling the in-town property and moving out to something with a lot less overhead (mort, tax, insurance, etc)

 

[DouglasVB]

I'm waiting to see all the Toyota minitrucks to start hitting the market. With the borders closed, they won't be able to flow south for a while. Maybe I'll finally get a pickup or early Tacoma to build a little 4x4 camper on for a good price. Or maybe me or will be out of work and I'll be selling my 4runner.

I'm not sure there's much market for a 45 right now,

I think there will still be a market. Those 45s are so nice and people love them. Not everyone is losing their shirts right now.

 

[OilHammer]

The BAT auctions are surprisingly strong. Or at least they were a week ago. I saw a guy bid $40k on a bronco the day after the market absolutely tanked. He either pulled his investments early or has enough to not care.

How about this one??? https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1995-toyota-supra-21/

 

[Rzeppa]

Really good article on Ars Technica today, about therapies. Not widely discussed is the potential that therapies can reduce the load on hospitals and critical care resources.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/covid-19-the-biology-of-an-effective-therapy/

If any of the approaches described above—or one we didn't consider—is even moderately effective, it could radically change our circumstances. It could ensure that far fewer coronavirus cases need hospitalization, and that fewer of those that do require critical care. A country's healthcare system could then continue functioning in the presence of a higher rate of infection, which in turn could mean that less dramatic social restrictions are required. If carefully managed, this might even allow countries to allow enough infections so that they achieve herd immunity before the availability of a vaccine.

 

[Inukshuk]

Nobody cares what you believe, really.

Please be nice. No need to be personal. Dave is not in Denver anymore , but he's a longtime member. We as a family will piss each other off on occasion - and its a "safe space" to do so

 

[J1000]

Please be nice. No need to be personal. Dave is not in Denver anymore , but he's a longtime member. We as a family will piss each other off on occasion - and its a "safe space" to do so

Sorry, you are right. I apologize @DaveInDenver and I edited my post to remove that. However, in my defense, Dave has routinely and consistently asking for a citation on everything anyone says, even if it's something that's been parroted around for weeks. He also is using tons of hyperbole basically calling anyone who is worried an overreacting moron or an authoritarian.

 

[Inukshuk]

Sorry, you are right. I apologize @DaveInDenver and I edited my post to remove that. However, in my defense, Dave has routinely and consistently asking for a citation on everything anyone says, even if it's something that's been parroted around for weeks. He also is using tons of hyperbole basically calling anyone who is worried an overreacting moron or an authoritarian.

He has? I didn't read his. Too long for me. Now I probably just pissed @DaveInDenver off . Sorry.
@J1000 your comment was brief and in its own paragraph.

Is it yet? I want to go Ok, back to work for a while.

 

[DouglasVB]

Who knows how real the twitterverse is right now but there's this:

Basically don't be an idiot and get too close to people

 

[Corbet]

It's just a really bad flu or cold guys. No big deal. I mean sure you can't climb the Rocky Mountains or go 4x4ing at high elevation anymore after you recover. It's really no big deal just overblown by the media:

https://www.sciencealert.com/even-t...ona-can-be-left-gasping-for-breath-afterwards

"People who recover after being infected with the novel coronavirus can still be left with substantially weakened lung capacity, with some left gasping for air when walking quickly, doctors in Hong Kong have found.

The Hong Kong Hospital Authority made the findings after studying the first wave of patients who were discharged from the hospital and had fully recovered from COVID-19.

Out of 12 people in the group, two to three saw changes in their lung capacity.

"They gasp if they walk a bit more quickly," Owen Tsang Tak-yin, the medical director of the authority's Infectious Disease Centre, told a press conference Thursday, according to the South China Morning Post.

"Some patients might have around a drop of 20 to 30% in lung function" after full recovery, he said."

How are they defining recovery? After I had pneumonia in 2017 I definitely had reduced lung capacity. Probably for 6 months after "recovering". I felt normal after that and do to this day. No clinical test before and after. I have to go on how I feel. It took about 6 months before I could ride my bike and feel normal. In the spirit of this thread "I believe" that no one has yet fully recovered from Covid19. Let's see where these people are in 12 months.

I've enjoyed this conversation. What's hardest for me to deal with is that we really don't have any hard data other than deaths. Testing is far too inconsistant for me to put much value in it. For all I know I already had it, you might have too? If I come down with symptoms tomorrow no one is going to test met. What will all this mean after it has passed? I suspect everything will be followed with an "*" in the future saying testing at the time was not sufficient.

 

[sleeoffroad]

If that is true, then CA is going to use this as another way to get money for their bankcrupt state. Just like they jumped on the feds to give them $1b in money for this.

Would they go to the homeless that no doubt is not social distancing and issue ticket? No, because they can't collect.

 

[DouglasVB]

If that is true, then CA is going to use this as another way to get money for their bankcrupt state. Just like they jumped on the feds to give them $1b in money for this.

From what I understand, it's local cops doing tickets. That money doesn't go to the state.

Would they go to the homeless that no doubt is not social distancing and issue ticket? No, because they can't collect.

The word on homeless is that the state and most of the more progressive counties are opening up any space they can find to house every homeless person who they can convince off the streets. At least in my county (Monterey), they had a small Q&A section for homeless people specifically basically saying do the best you can do, we've got a bed for you in a safe place with enough separation so please take the offer, and we're not going to fine you or lock you up if you are still in a camp as long as you don't bother anyone. I think that's what most of the other counties are doing. Although I imagine Los Angeles county might see this as their opportunity to implement Judge Dredd-style policing
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EDIT:

We've seen a *dramatic* decrease in homeless people since this time last week around the city of Monterey. No tourists means there's no money so maybe some have moved on elsewhere. Or maybe they really are getting taken off the streets and put in temporary housing to ride this one out.