Corona Virus Panic

Firetacoma

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Jumping in to this interesting discussion for some back of the envelope calculations:
If herd immunity is achieved when 60% of the population is immune (per google), the population of the US is 327 million, we could reasonably assume that 196 million people will contract COVID-19 if left unchecked. If the mortality rate is say, 2%, that could reasonably be 39,200,000 deaths just in America.

I would love a math/fact check that shows I'm wrong by an order of 100 or 1000 or so.
 

DaveInDenver

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Jumping in to this interesting discussion for some back of the envelope calculations:
If herd immunity is achieved when 60% of the population is immune (per google), the population of the US is 327 million, we could reasonably assume that 196 million people will contract COVID-19 if left unchecked. If the mortality rate is say, 2%, that could reasonably be 39,200,000 deaths just in America.

I would love a math/fact check that shows I'm wrong by an order of 100 or 1000 or so.
Wouldn't 327 million * 0.6 = 196.2 million * 0.02 = 3.924 million? To get 39.2 million would be 20% of 196 million. Or are you saying 2% of the overall population because that would require 327 million infections and would still only be 6.54 million (2% of 327 million).
 

Firetacoma

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Wouldn't 327 million * 0.6 = 196.2 million * 0.02 = 3.924 million? To get 39.2 million would be 20% of 196 million. Or are you saying 2% of the overall population because that would require 327 million infections and would still only be 6.54 million (2% of 327 million).

Yes, I believe your math skills work better than mine! 3.924 million deaths.
 

gungriffin

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I don't know that people understand how close we are to a triage medical care system. That is the reason why keeping the COVID-19 spread contained is/was so important. The upcoming crisis will not just include COVID-19 patients. This will be everyone. Got stage 4 cancer? Hope you can wait at least 3 months. Massive heart attack? Good luck, the doctor is presently with the COVID-19 patients. This is the issue. There will be a spike in ALL deaths across ALL causes if we aren't to keep this manageable for our heath care providers. Then what happens when the health care providers start to die at an accelerated rate because of high infection levels and their being exhausted when they contract the virus? This is why quarantine and testing is so important. Hell, we haven't even solved 1 of 2 of our most basic needs for containment. Testing. We don't even know how many cases we presently have because of testing limitations.

This is going to be bad. It isn't presently bad yet.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/medical-triage-and-how-it-works-2615132

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/14/21179714/coronavirus-covid-19-hospital-beds-china
 
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DouglasVB

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OilHammer

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Collateral damage should be taken into consideration with every leader decision. It would be hard to say if the one life saved was the one that would invent the next cure to cancer. I just don't think many people are skilled at playing chess and seeing 10 moves into the game.

I'm obviously poking fun because there are too many people on here taking this way too seriously. It's a car forum....I think.
 
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DouglasVB

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It's a car forum....I think.

Wrong. It's a politics forum with a 4x4 truck and SUV problem. 😂😂😂

More counties in California are issuing shelter-in-place orders. Sacramento and Yolo counties and I think a few others. I'm having a hard time keeping track out here about which counties are still open for business to some degree vs which counties are sheltering in place.

The craziest thing to me is seeing so many people on the various local 4x4 groups in California ranting about their constitutional rights and 2A rights, and how they're going to do as much as they can to violate the shelter in place orders. I guess some local police departments and sheriffs are planning to not enforce as well? It's wild in two ways: 1) this is going county-by-county in the decision-making process so it's a local-level decision to issue the shelter-in-place order (NOT from the governor) which means it's been haphazard and 2) people don't trust their local politicians and county health departments to make the call about this issue. It's like... do they think their local politicians want to intentionally crater the economy without a very good reason? They live there, too. It's not like local politicians want all the restaurants, hotels, movie theaters, bars, and whatnot to go out of business.

Looks like the national guard and the VA are both getting ready to mobilize: https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ard-says-tens-of-thousands-could-be-called-up
and: https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/818518665/interpreting-the-comments-from-va-secretary-wilkie

This is the one I'm watching very closely: https://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/8166...hain-as-farms-worry-about-workers-falling-ill

EDIT:

And now Netflix is reducing quality in the EU because of bandwidth constraints: https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech...-standard-definition-slow-traffic/2873988001/

SECOND EDIT:

And now the State Department has issued a global Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory: https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...ert-global-level-4-health-advisory-issue.html
 
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DaveInDenver

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Will coronavirus lead to martial law?

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/03/17/will-coronavirus-lead-to-martial-law/

"California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a Sunday presser said that martial law was not necessary to combat coronavirus in his state.

“If you want to establish a framework of martial law, which is ultimate authority and enforcement, we have the capacity to do that, but we are not feeling at this moment that is a necessity,” Newsom said."


Trump’s Reasonable—And Yet Still Worrisome—Emergency Declaration

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/trumps-emergency-declaration-coronavirus/608083/

"When President Donald Trump issued emergency declarations in response to the coronavirus pandemic on Friday, many Americans didn’t know whether to breathe a sigh of relief or to call the American Civil Liberties Union. Trump’s negligence in addressing the growing crisis had been galling to watch. But when a president with autocratic tendencies invokes emergency powers, red flags start to wave. Should Americans be encouraged by the president’s action—or deeply worried?"
 

Rzeppa

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Well, I'm still open. And I got my hair cut this morning (my real hair, not the beating my portfolio has endured this month). I had to pick up a few things at the grocery store, and I see they must have restocked since last night. Still no toilet paper, paper towels or facial tissues. I think there is a substantial possibility we will have a statewide "shelter in place" order soon. I'm glad they're finally testing en mass, but of course that leads to bigger numbers being reported. Obviously, those infections were already out there, they just weren't being tested and confirmed. Strange times indeed.
 

OHUZJ100

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I don't make the rules guys I just follow them
Screenshot_20200319-184909.png
 

jps8460

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It's like... do they think their local politicians want to intentionally crater the economy without a very good reason? They live there, too. It's not like local politicians want a

intentionally... probably not. But really they don’t have any skin in the game. If a 4wd shop or 3D printing, or a few restaurants goes out of business, it’s no skin off their back, they get to go back to their cushy job and paid time off with no consequences for their actions. Worst case is that they don’t get re-elected.
The difference in risk for spreading the virus for me staying home vs being at work has to be far less than going to the grocery store.

as long as the shelter in place stuff allows us to still go to work and we can still ship/receive products then so be it. I just don’t see any added risk (infinitesimal to say the least) of a 10-15 employee business continuing to operate.

also, why doesn’t the government invest that $350B into solving the lack of facilities crisis. Every school in America is empty right now. Don’t tell me that for a few billion we couldn’t get some ventilators online.

shit’s weird. Love you guys
 
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DouglasVB

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I don't make the rules guys I just follow them

Hey wait a minute... what about us mini truck guys? 😂😂😂

as long as the shelter in place shit allows us to still go to work and we can still ship/receive products then so be it. I just don’t see any added risk (infinitesimal to say the least) of a 10-15 employee business continuing to operate.

At least here in Monterey County, the way it's been enacted for business closures (from what I've observed around town), employees can still come to work and do work if they cannot telework BUT they are minimizing interaction with customers as much as possible. Restaurants, bars, and gyms are closed to the public but restaurants and bars are allowed to do to-go if they want to (most aren't though). Gyms are allowed to do online classes and several are doing that. Other businesses here such as car repair shops are still open for business as they are on the "essential" list. So for what it's worth in my little corner of California, it's probably not as bad as it's been portrayed to be from the perspective of everyone can still work if the business can accommodate it in some way. BUT there are close to zero tourists here now and that's the main economic engine here. No tourists mean the restaurants and bars and most of the shops have no reason to stay open. If you want a job though it seems like the ag industry is starting to try to hire up more as are the grocery stores and distribution centers.

We'll see if it gets more extreme though. There are an awful lot of people not taking it very seriously which I suspect might help make the situation worse and force a much harsher lockdown at some point.

-------------

On the plus side, we've been going for a lot more walks around our neighborhood, I get to stay home every day with my 👸🏼 (she works remote all the time already) and our 😻 who has been having health problems, and the town has been so quiet and peaceful. This normally would be the start of spring break tourist hell for us.
 

Rzeppa

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We'll see if it gets more extreme though. There are an awful lot of people not taking it very seriously which I suspect might help make the situation worse and force a much harsher lockdown at some point.

Welp, that was me when I started this thread. I was comparing (the numbers on that date) with the seasonal flu. This thing's tearing up Europe WAY faster than the seasonal flu, and what's been going on in Italy the past week or so is absolutely heartbreaking.

When I saw the story in the Denver Post about the CU student who tested positive for coronavirus after attending Saint Patrick's day parties over the weekend I was fairly appalled, but not surprised. Same with reports of college students at beaches partying on their spring break without a care of the pandemic.

To quote the Refreshment's lyric from "Banditos", which was a song my band used to play and one of my favorites, "the world is full of stupid people". Notice the powder blue FJ40 is their getaway car in the video! Upside down bezel LOL.
 

jps8460

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Welp, that was me when I started this thread. I was comparing (the numbers on that date) with the seasonal flu. This thing's tearing up Europe WAY faster than the seasonal flu, and what's been going on in Italy the past week or so is absolutely heartbreaking.

When I saw the story in the Denver Post about the CU student who tested positive for coronavirus after attending Saint Patrick's day parties over the weekend I was fairly appalled, but not surprised. Same with reports of college students at beaches partying on their spring break without a care of the pandemic.

To quote the Refreshment's lyric from "Banditos", which was a song my band used to play and one of my favorites, "the world is full of stupid people". Notice the powder blue FJ40 is their getaway car in the video! Upside down bezel LOL.

the refreshments, man I haven’t heard that song since high school.
 

DouglasVB

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Well... all of California is now on a Stay-Home order: https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/

It has no end date. It appears more restrictive than what our county enacted.

I expect it'll be clarified more in the coming days. Right now it appears we're no longer allowed to go outside to exercise.
 

DaveInDenver

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Remain calm, all is well. It'll be over in 2 weeks or 30 days or 8 weeks or 12 weeks, right? Jesus, this is Newsweek saying this stuff, not Alex Jones. Who is their typical audience, what muck are they raking and what are the consequences? For a total of 137 deaths in the U.S. as of 3/19/2020. Fear, uncertainty, doubt ... chaos. But with everyone safely in their houses and no NHL/NBA/NASCAR to distract they have captive eyeballs.

Exclusive: Inside The Military's Top Secret Plans If Coronavirus Cripples the Government

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-...ns-if-coronavirus-cripples-government-1492878
 
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J Kimmel

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Dave its for the greater good but don't worry the national guard will be on alert indefinitely in case you don't comply

Remain calm, all is well. It'll be over in 2 weeks or 30 days or 8 weeks or 12 weeks, right? Jesus, this is Newsweek saying this stuff, not Alex Jones. Who is their typical audience, what muck are they raking and what are the consequences? For a total of 137 deaths in the U.S. as of 3/19/2020. Fear, uncertainty, doubt ... chaos. But with everyone safely in their houses and no NHL/NBA/NASCAR to distract they have captive eyeballs.

Exclusive: Inside The Military's Top Secret Plans If Coronavirus Cripples the Government

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-...ns-if-coronavirus-cripples-government-1492878
 

Romer

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Dave, I am not sure if you really believe what you are posting or just trying to stir up a debate. In a few weeks when it gets to thousands of people dead or tens of thousands will that be a number that you go, OK I guess this is a big deal. What is your threshold number? I know I said I was backing out, but I just can't believe what your posting.

My cousin is always complaining about the government and rights etc etc. He is Pissed about all the people in Miami on the beach and those who aren't trying to comply with what is being asked. His wife is out of work, but he is afraid for his parents.

Sure 137 deaths today is what you posted. As of 6 min ago on the CDC site its 187. Three days ago there were only 37 dead in the us.

Last week there were only 500 positive cases, now there are over 14,000. At that rate there will be over 2 million by the end of April, 4 million by the end of May

People your age get sick like the flu no big deal. My age it increases the chance of death and for my in-laws even higher. I can see why this is not an issue for you as it would be just like the flu or a cold for you and then you would move on. I am older and could die. My in-laws would likely die. If you and I were to hangout and go to a bar and you had it but didnt have symptoms, I would likely come home with it infecting my wife and then in-laws and that has a potentially tragic outcome. No big deal for those partying in Miami and not a big deal for you.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/health/new-jersey-coronavirus-family-members-killed/index.html This family got together for a simple family dinner and now 4 of them are dead and two others are in the hospital

"If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic, according to epidemiologist Neil Ferguson and others at the Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team. "

What is the dollar value related to our economy you need to say 2.2 million dead is too much?

And what really complicates this is it will overwhelm the hospital system. Those with heart attacks or other alignments normally saved by a hospital visit wont have a place to go and will also die

You mentioned Cancer and HIV. For those partying on the beach in Miami, Cancer and HIV doesnt spread those by just being in the group. The people there were quoted as saying" if I get Corona I get Corona , no big deal" But then they take it home and give it to their buddy, sister or brother who give it to someone else who works at King Soopers and unknowingly gives it to my mother in law who could die. Their lack of concern is based on failure to understand consequences which is typical at that age.


We have had multiple at my work get sick over the last week all by causal contact with someone who didnt know they were sick until later. It is highly contagious. Much more than the flu

This is a huge deal. A life and death deal and I really don't get your stance on how your freedoms are being violated. I have explained my perspective, can you explain why you feel the way you do? Do you not believe the potential deaths could be 2 million? Do you not believe that people can unknowingly give it to others? Is there a point were you would feel the government should step in?

Like I said earlier, this is one of the few times we actually need government
 
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