Yes you are correct - the federal $7500 starts to phase out when a manufacturer has sold 200k cars, and then it starts to halve. The current federal tax credit for Telsa is $3,750 and the CO tax credit is $5k. The Tesla federal tax credit will halve again on 6/30, but the CO one looks like it will remain until 2022 pending any legislative changes. Rivian would be eligible for the full $7500 + $5000 for CO residents assuming nothing changes between now and then.
I was able to get a pretty sweet deal because they were pushing to bump their Q1 numbers, and I bought a "discontinued" model which is the mid range battery pack. The MR was created as a stop gap in 3Q17 to offer a less expensive model until the standard range (the fabled $35k car) was available, so the MR is essentially a long range/LR car with the same features but with slightly less range (~40 miles less). Tesla released the SR about a month ago and canceled the MR because the margins weren't good on the MR since you get all the premium stuff from a LR for a much lower price. The SR is a good car, but they removed a bunch of cool features to get the price point right - standard vs premium maps, no traffic on the maps, no web browser, no leather, no power seats, no streaming internet radio, etc. They now also offer a SR+ model which basically adds leather and front heated seats and a little bit more range, but the model lineup got a bit complicated for a bit with SR, SR+, MR, LR, LR AWD, LR AWD Performance... Anyways I ended up getting a sweet deal and basically paid the same as an SR+ car but got a much better equipped car, and next year on my taxes I'll get $8,750 in credits. Oh and the maintenance costs are close to zero, insurance is about half what it costs for our 2008 200, and the equivalent cost to get 280 miles of range is about $6-8 as opposed to $53 in the 200. With the deal plus the tax credits and high residual, it will make driving it for a couple years ridiculously cheap.