Trump tariffs

[KC Masterpiece]

and quality products that we used to be known for.

too much stuff these days is throw away. i wish we'd go back to quality parts that could be rebuilt.

My Inlaws are crazy for TEMU. I don't understand it. They buy and send me tools all the time and the quality is absolute crap. Like break the first time you use it crap. I was sent a pancake air compressor that is "oil free for easy maintenance". The motor burned out first use. They always brag about how good of a deal they got though. Quality stuff tends to actually cost less in the long run. We seem to have forgotten that. Not this group specifically, but overall as a culture.

Do you want to spend $100 once on a quality tool? Or spend $30 on crap tool that breaks every few months for the next decade?

 

[Crash]

My Inlaws are crazy for TEMU. I don't understand it. They buy and send me tools all the time and the quality is absolute crap. Like break the first time you use it crap. I was sent a pancake air compressor that is "oil free for easy maintenance". The motor burned out first use. They always brag about how good of a deal they got though. Quality stuff tends to actually cost less in the long run. We seem to have forgotten that. Not this group specifically, but overall as a culture.

Do you want to spend $100 once on a quality tool? Or spend $30 on crap tool that breaks every few months for the next decade?

Harbor Freight anyone? I’ve always believed in buy the best and only cry once.

 

[Cruisertrash]

and quality products that we used to be known for.

too much stuff these days is throw away. i wish we'd go back to quality parts that could be rebuilt.

That gets back to the question of who is willing to pay for it? Or who is able to afford paying for quality products when you're purchasing like that in every aspect of life, and not just a few occasional quality purchases? Don't get me wrong, I completely agree with you. I hate throwaway culture and poorly made goods, and we're currently flooded with that junk. I love my good tools and other quality things I own ... like my 60 Series.

@KC Masterpiece My parents are Amazon junkies and talk the same way "...but it was so cheap!" You're right that buying one nice product can often times be cheaper in the long run than buying a string of crappy products that break. I'm on the third soles for my Red Wing boots, and even then it's been cheaper than having to buy junk boots every 6-12 months like I used to.

Some of that comes from being trained as a consumer to purchase that way. But I would guess a large part of those purchases are out of necessity. People simply can't afford the one-time cost of a higher priced, more quality good. Various studies put the percentage of Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck at 30-60%. A wide spread, but I'm trying to encompass all of the numbers out there so I don't get accused of cherry picking. When margins on the home front are slim, maybe you can pony up for a higher priced quality item now and again - but not consistently.

Terry Pratchett's Boots Theory is interesting:
" Take boots, for example. ... A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. ... But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while a poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet." I've seen this quite literally play out with my own Red Wings.

I guess it all comes back to how do we make nice things more affordable for the average American? Is it making the goods more cheaply? Temu and Amazon try that, but I wouldn't call their product selection nice on the whole and it sort of follows the "you can have something nice, cheap, or fast: pick two" rule. Do we raise wages? Industry doesn't seem to have had the appetite for that since the middle 1970s. Heck, they're willing to ship raw goods to China and other far away places, utilize drastically cheaper labor, then ship the products back to sell to us all to avoid the cost of domestic labor (yes, occasionally it's because the raw materials are already in those far away places; it's complicated, industry thrives on cheap labor though, that much is for sure). Will forcing things to become more expensive through tariffs make nice things cheaper at some future point? That seems unlikely when businesses are having to choke down a cost increase either way, picking between their least bad option, and consumers get used to higher prices so businesses leave the prices there even if costs eventually go down.

So how does it happen?

 

[nuclearlemon]

Harbor Freight anyone? I’ve always believed in buy the best and only cry once.

actually, there are a few gems at harbor freight. before i buy anything there, i check the harbor freight pass or fail thread on garage journal. a bunch of folks raved about their composite ratchets, so i bought one at first. i've since bought four more, two 1/4" and total 3 3/8 drives. they're good close tolerance and comfortable. one has lost the button for the socket release, but still works just fine.

Some of that comes from being trained as a consumer to purchase that way. But I would guess a large part of those purchases are out of necessity. People simply can't afford the one-time cost of a higher priced, more quality good. Various studies put the percentage of Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck at 30-60%. A wide spread, but I'm trying to encompass all of the numbers out there so I don't get accused of cherry picking. When margins on the home front are slim, maybe you can pony up for a higher priced quality item now and again - but not consistently.

i think americans aren't quite as paycheck to paycheck because of the price, but because of that 'it was sooo cheap so i bought it' attitude. i see so many of my friends/coworkers buying crap they don't need, then complaining they don't have any money. i put stuff in my basket and revisit it a week later...most of the time i don't even want it anymore.

 

[Crash]

actually, there are a few gems at harbor freight. before i buy anything there, i check the harbor freight pass or fail thread on garage journal. a bunch of folks raved about their composite ratchets, so i bought one at first. i've since bought four more, two 1/4" and total 3 3/8 drives. they're good close tolerance and comfortable. one has lost the button for the socket release, but still works just fine.


i think americans aren't quite as paycheck to paycheck because of the price, but because of that 'it was sooo cheap so i bought it' attitude. i see so many of my friends/coworkers buying crap they don't need, then complaining they don't have any money. i put stuff in my basket and revisit it a week later...most of the time i don't even want it anymore.

Will have to check out Garage Journal. Thanks!

 

[BritKLR]

That gets back to the question of who is willing to pay for it? Or who is able to afford paying for quality products when you're purchasing like that in every aspect of life, and not just a few occasional quality purchases? Don't get me wrong, I completely agree with you. I hate throwaway culture and poorly made goods, and we're currently flooded with that junk. I love my good tools and other quality things I own ... like my 60 Series.

@KC Masterpiece My parents are Amazon junkies and talk the same way "...but it was so cheap!" You're right that buying one nice product can often times be cheaper in the long run than buying a string of crappy products that break. I'm on the third soles for my Red Wing boots, and even then it's been cheaper than having to buy junk boots every 6-12 months like I used to.

Some of that comes from being trained as a consumer to purchase that way. But I would guess a large part of those purchases are out of necessity. People simply can't afford the one-time cost of a higher priced, more quality good. Various studies put the percentage of Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck at 30-60%. A wide spread, but I'm trying to encompass all of the numbers out there so I don't get accused of cherry picking. When margins on the home front are slim, maybe you can pony up for a higher priced quality item now and again - but not consistently.

Terry Pratchett's Boots Theory is interesting:
" Take boots, for example. ... A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. ... But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while a poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet." I've seen this quite literally play out with my own Red Wings.

I guess it all comes back to how do we make nice things more affordable for the average American? Is it making the goods more cheaply? Temu and Amazon try that, but I wouldn't call their product selection nice on the whole and it sort of follows the "you can have something nice, cheap, or fast: pick two" rule. Do we raise wages? Industry doesn't seem to have had the appetite for that since the middle 1970s. Heck, they're willing to ship raw goods to China and other far away places, utilize drastically cheaper labor, then ship the products back to sell to us all to avoid the cost of domestic labor (yes, occasionally it's because the raw materials are already in those far away places; it's complicated, industry thrives on cheap labor though, that much is for sure). Will forcing things to become more expensive through tariffs make nice things cheaper at some future point? That seems unlikely when businesses are having to choke down a cost increase either way, picking between their least bad option, and consumers get used to higher prices so businesses leave the prices there even if costs eventually go down.

So how does it happen?

There is no single way/answer to this. There is as many different purchasing reasons as there are people in this world.

And, then you have the flagrant IP theft of American designed/ made products that are ripped off and then made in China and then resold in the US.

Here's the latest Adventure Tool Company IP ripoff......Good old Sean Angues of Overland Vehicle Systems (OVS). I just posted this to start addressing this BS.

"Wow.....through the magic of the universe Overland Vehicle Systems (OVS)has independently created a toolroll that is weirdly similar to the Original, Colorado made, 15 year old, Adventure Tool Company ShopRoll......wow, that is wild......

#overlandvehiclesystems
#Expedition
#Overlanding

PS: if you bought the OVS knockoff and would prefer the USA/Colorado made, ATC Original, simply return it to OVS for a refund and I'll sell you the original at a discount! Thanks!"

 

[Crash]

There is no single way/answer to this. There is as many different purchasing reasons as there are people in this world.

And, then you have the flagrant IP theft of American designed/ made products that are ripped off and then made in China and then resold in the US.

Here's the latest Adventure Tool Company IP ripoff......Good old Sean Angues of Overland Vehicle Systems (OVS). I just posted this to start addressing this BS.

"Wow.....through the magic of the universe Overland Vehicle Systems (OVS)has independently created a toolroll that is weirdly similar to the Original, Colorado made, 15 year old, Adventure Tool Company ShopRoll......wow, that is wild......

#overlandvehiclesystems
#Expedition
#Overlanding

PS: if you bought the OVS knockoff and would prefer the USA/Colorado made, ATC Original, simply return it to OVS for a refund and I'll sell you the original at a discount! Thanks!"

View attachment 142128View attachment 142129

Imitation is the highest form of flattery. Even if it takes money out if your product.

 

[Burt88]

I want to chime in on this thread mainly because my coffee company is very negatively affected by the current state of things. As far as the tariffs go the instability in the market, among other geopolitical and natural factors, have supercharged the cost of all of my raw products and I and many other small independent companies will suffer before the greater possibility of going out of business. The tariffs haven't even been enacted yet so I still have to wait and see how much more I need to charge customers. Wholesale green coffee has gone up around 50% since December, packaging is all made overseas, and shipping just increased again last week around 10%. Inevitably the largest companies in the coffee industry will have the upper hand and by putting smaller companies out of business will further concentrate power and wealth among the investment companies that own them. But isn't that what my generation has been trained to do? Build a company to eventually sell to a larger company? Then that company sells up and over decades of unrealized concentration of ownership among a few we have an economy that's controlled by a handful of big bad investment firms.

On the broader subject which we find ourselves talking about American manufacturing this and that. The ship has sailed. We had our chance over the past decades since the 70's to promote value of American production and keep some bigger manufacturing here but we were marketed into ignorance all for the sake of the shareholder. We allowed industry to put profits over people and influence policies that drove manufacturing increasingly to cheaper sources outside the country. We now exist as the number one consumer in the entire world in a global economy that has never existed like this before. Even the manufacturing that exists in America relies on base products from around the world. We desire so many things to feel relevant in the over marketed consumerism of our economy we pay little attention to who we support with our purchases. Why spend more if we can get almost the same thing way cheaper, then turn the blinders on. Why support a small coffee company when the bigger soulless investment backed company is requesting your money? Why put dollars into the hands of local and regional communities when big multinational industries would rather have your support to increase their market share? We blindly support and consume without realizing the long term outcome then look back in disgust wondering how we got so sidetracked. We the consumers have the power to drive the economy however we want but we won't commit on a major scale to put our money where our mouth is.

 

[simps80]

<snip>

U.S. dairy exports make big inroads into Canada | The Western Producer

Trade data shows that the United States is selling more dairy products to Canada.

www.producer.com

“Tariffs get steep pretty quickly, ranging from 241 per cent for liquid milk to 298 per cent for butter, effectively pricing those imported products out of the market,” says a Cornell summary of the research paper.

However, the tariffs are hypothetical because U.S. export volumes to Canada are below the TRQ.

“In practice, these tariffs are not actually paid by anyone,” Al Mussell, an agricultural economist from Ontario, told CNN recently.

But while the optics of a 298 per cent tariff can be easily exploited by Trump and others, including U.S. dairy exporters, Wolf said they’re also necessary for Canada’s dairy industry.

America’s dairy farms are larger and more efficient, so the cost of producing milk is lower, said Wolf, who grew up on a farm in Wisconsin.

“You (Canada) have to have the trade protections.… You can’t maintain an internal price that’s 1.5 to two times (higher )… what the U.S. farm milk price is, without preventing trade,” he said, adding that American dairy farms have huge herds compared to Canada.

“In the United States today … 70 per cent of the milk production comes from herds that have a 1,000 or more cows.”

Meanwhile, dairy farms with less than 100 cows are still commonplace in Canada.

“For Canadian dairy farms, the average is 96 milking cows,” says the Dairy Farmers of Canada website.

“Eastern Canada tends to have an average number that is lower (average of 75 to 95 cows per farm in Quebec and Ontario).”

Wolf isn’t pro or con supply management. From his vantage point in New York, Canadians should decide if they want supply management or not.
<snip>

if I am following correctly on these two sections of this excellent post.. in brief summary they say:

1. the tariff escalators aren’t hit because export volumes don’t reach that level so they’re not real..

2. Canada dairy farms can’t compete in a free market with us dairy farms…

I have to wonder

do US exports/Canadian imports not reach the volume to hit the escalated tariff rate for exactly that reason? The market knows once the 200+ percent tariffs hit then there is no point in exporting those products?

and aren’t the two directly related…?
that’s to say the volume exports at relatively close to free trade rates is the volume that meets the demand side that Canadas dairy industry can’t meet and only that amount?

I mean I think it seems evident that Canada brings in what they need to supplement their industry and no more without punitive tariffs to prevent infringing on their own industry

what am I missing?

“those tariffs aren’t real cause we never hit them”
“right because that’s exactly Canada’s intent…import only what we want to allow and prevent the rest”

right? or nah?

 

[KC Masterpiece]

I would like to say I really love seeing thoughtful conversations with conflicting viewpoints on a controversial issue without any mud slinging. Good job Rising Sun. America definitely needs more of that.

 

[BritKLR]

Imitation is the highest form of flattery. Even if it takes money out if your product.

Nah....If his lawyer(s) would ever pick up the phone or return our calls and Cease and Desist orders I might consider a licensing agreement but, for now I'll continue to get him kicked out of Events for selling stolen IP goods.

 

[gr8fulabe]

Actual text of the CFR. Good news is that there is a collector car carve out (25yr exemption) to the 25%. @shellb there also looks to be a carve out for, "Knock down" Kits & "Parts complilations" so that could potentially be helpful with your plans. I haven't read the full text yet, and probably won't be able to until this weekend, but it seems promising for the most part, for import vehicles & parts.

https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-05930.pdf?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2Vmf-OOxozGzcfpMQQKLpAvLqQX1ZnX5sonEFOjREhOULfkabMrXpTxgM_aem_x-WessnLOYhhNgf7Oj0sYA

 

[Corbet]

Nah....If his lawyer(s) would ever pick up the phone or return our calls and Cease and Desist orders I might consider a licensing agreement but, for now I'll continue to get him kicked out of Events for selling stolen IP goods.

It’s both, the flattery comes in knowing you designed a great product but that stops once you look at the business side and then you do what you need to to. I’ve sent out plenty of Cease and Desist orders, or I should say my attorney has.

 

[Cruisertrash]

@BritKLR That's wild ... and unfortunate. Just send a photo to an offshore manufacturer and say "Get me 1000 of these"? Is that the play they made? Whatever the case, it's pretty sad. I've seen a little bit of this on the Cruiser parts world and have heard people say "it's just competition bro, deal with it!" which is a pretty disingenuous argument in support of straight ripping off people's ideas. There's far less gentlemanliness to it all than I initially thought. A handful of times I've had some people whose names I recognize place orders from me for one small unique part. They're people that I know are in a position to have the part manufactured if they chose to do so. After an order like that I spend a couple months occasionally Google searching to see if a clone product has hit the market yet. So far so good, but I'm sure the day will come. I even had one player where I reached out and said hey, here's a twist on an idea that you're already making that is pretty different - perhaps you'd like to make it. No response, so I develop the part myself and let them know. Three days later they announced this new part.

@nuclearlemon That was the "training" I alluded to before - we've been trained to buy buy buy, and buy as cheaply as possible almost completely ignoring quality. I don't think irresponsible purchasing is 100% the cause of people living paycheck to paycheck, as Paul said there are as many purchasing habits as there are people. I guess the common thread, though, is that training aspect - how we're trained to be consumers and how to consume.

Which is kind of what @Burt88 is talking about. Man, I've been wondering about the coffee business since I noticed that some of the higher tariffs are on locations where coffee beans come from. I feel for you man.

Your other point is exactly what happened post-2008 housing market collapse. The people best able to weather the storm are those that already have a huge market share and gobs of money. And so consolidation is the result. Things accumulate upwards. And with so much market share being consolidated, those huge outfits are more able to set whatever price they want instead of being beholden to an open market that has more options - whether they do so de facto or intentionally almost doesn't matter. Being by far a consumer economy (as you mentioned, and which ties into my idea of how we're "trained" as consumers), we'll follow manufacturers setting higher prices (for lower quality junk) blindly off the edge of the cliff, like lemmings. Of course those same outfits don't suddenly provide higher wages either. It's almost like these tariffs play into that - a crashing economy will benefit the largest players since they're better able to make it through tough times in one piece. Who knows if that's intentional or not. The tariffs certainly don't seem designed to help small or mid sized businesses - or average American consumers - that's for sure. But that gets me away from speaking theoretically like I've mostly done so far, and into the realm of my personal opinion.

 

[DanS]

Nah....If his lawyer(s) would ever pick up the phone or return our calls and Cease and Desist orders I might consider a licensing agreement but, for now I'll continue to get him kicked out of Events for selling stolen IP goods.

I STILL won't buy Trail Gear stuff because of how they tried to steal from Marlin (and I realize that's water under the bridge for most everyone involved now). Won't find any OVS stuff in our house, now, or in future--just from this post.

EDIT--can we also all agree that specifically naming British Indian Ocean Territory, Heard Island, and the McDonald Islands is comically funny. Like someone took the time to write those into the EO, without looking at what they are, or who inhabits them.

Dan

 

[DaveInDenver]

I'd throw out a thinking point. What it seems to me what Trump fundamentally did was put the final nail in the Bretton Woods agreement. Everyone talks about that as Nixon's move to close the gold window in 1971 being when we walked away.

But that agreement was more than currency convertibility and pegging. As a way to help rebuild the shattered economies the U.S. agreed to drop all of our then high tariffs to give a market to all the goods and support recovery of industries in Europe and Japan.

It seems fair to me to revisit that and decide if the world still needs the U.S. to have asymmetrical trade policies such as those and if staying bound to Bretton Woods still benefits the U.S.

The problem we face is that the economy has been so manipulated for so long that there is no easy solution. Manufacturing has been draining from the U.S. for decades. Some of that is the fault of each of us personally, some of greed or corruption in the business and political classes. Some of it the world taking advantage of our good will post-WWII.

What the post-WWII policies have caused is the only major exports coming from the U.S. are Dollars (between Bretton Woods and the petro dollar) and wars to protect those two things while hollowing out the industrial base and importing significant amounts of our materials and finished goods.

And as far as wars, if it wasn't for the military and requiring minimum domestic content we'd have even less. I mean, the Russians own the company (Evraz North America) that makes the armor plates for the JLTV, which is the replacement for the HMMWV. The plant is physically in Oregon, so there's American employees but profit flows out. Not to mention, there's been evidence that the quality is shoddy with plates cracking. So capital at minimum is not reinvested (being charitable, it's not like a foreign ownership would have any motivation for reducing our military's readiness, right?).

But in the final analysis it really doesn't matter if that's true or not or just how disproportionate the domestic economy is skewed. The economic can has been kicked down the road for so long that we face either continuing the inevitable slow crash of our economy or we do an abrupt correction. This is not just a Trump-Biden problem it goes back to Eisenhower and Truman trade and economic policies and every Congress and Administration since. It's not even as simple as the "world" taking advantage, there's homegrown pain (could be shareholder greed, maybe simply necessary to stay in business, doesn't matter) at play every time a Ford sent production to Canada, Mexico or elsewhere or IBM or T.I. opened a facility in Taiwan or India.

Even in our relatively diminished capacity we're still a major producer and consumer, so if the U.S. declines the world does too. What's going to happen when the Dollar crashes or inflation goes hyperbolic? We've toed that line a couple of times the past 20 years. Then U.S. has got nothing to offer and won't be able to make our own stuff. The world, too, will know real pain. It's not the bankers, CEOs or politicians who'll bear the brunt of it.

 

[Cruisertrash]

What the post-WWII policies have caused is the only major exports coming from the U.S. are Dollars

This is the product we produce. It's purchased by others with cheap goods that we consume (or, rather, the labor and material inputs to those goods). While certain folks in the US may feel there's an imbalance here or that our export (dollars) isn't being valued appropriately, the tariffs are only going to work to slow the demand for our dollars, which will lower the value (exchange rates are disfavoring the dollar this morning; long term effects TBD, but the market isn't happy). I guess I don't see a path for the tariffs to increase the demand for the dollar or raise its value. And at the end of the day, the market will determine the value they see in the dollar. I don't know that just demanding the dollar be valued differently will alter the decision making of a foreign entity in the long run, even if the threats being made are big. TL/DR: the dollar is worth what other countries/orgs are willing to "pay" for it, whether we like it or not.

And as far as wars, if it wasn't for the military and requiring minimum domestic content we'd have nothing. I mean, the Russians own the company (Evraz North America) that makes the armor plates for the JLTV, which is the replacement for the HMMWV. The plant is physically in Oregon, so there's American employees but profit flows out. Not to mention, there's been evidence that the quality is shoddy with plates cracking. So capital at minimum is not reinvested (being charitable, it's not like a foreign ownership would have any motiviation for reducing our military's readiness, right?).

Our domestic military industry is, I guess, one of the few other products we sell. No wars = bad for business.

But in the final analysis it really doesn't matter if that's true or not. The economic can has been kicked down the road for so long that we face either continuing the inevitable slow crash of our economy or we do an abrupt correction to rip off the band-aid.

One of my more radical beliefs is that, in the face of finite resources, infinitely expanding economic growth is a fallacy

Even in our relatively diminished capacity we're still a major producer and consumer, so if the U.S. declines the world does too. What's going to happen when the Dollar crashes or inflation goes hyperbolic? We've toed that line a couple of times the past 20 years. Then U.S. has got nothing to offer and won't be able to make our own stuff. The world, too, will know real pain.

Imagine being in the small group of decision makers who willing choose to foist suffering on a large swath of humans alive on the planet.

It's not the bankers, CEOs or politicians who'll bear the brunt of it.

Yep. Like I said above, folks like that are in a position to weather storm and come out ahead.

 

[DanInDenver]

One of my more radical beliefs is that, in the face of finite resources, infinitely expanding economic growth is a fallacy

I’ve often wondered if health insurance companies should be regulated like a utility? Basically set a max profit margin. BCBS management make bank, they work hard but are incredibly well paid.

 

[RayRay27]

This is my last post on tariffs and then I am moving on to something else that will give me depression and anxiety. I have no control over tariffs so there is no point in being upset, just have to live life but the headline on this article I read today pretty much sums it up.

'We're All Dead': GOP Senator Reacts To Trump Tariffs​

Per the Huffington Post:
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) wasn’t concerned enough about President Donald Trump’s steep international tariffs to vote against them Wednesday — like some of his GOP colleagues — but did scold staunch supporters of the policy with a dire warning to multiple outlets.

“In the long run, we’re all dead,” he told CNN’s Manu Raju on Capitol Hill for “The Lead with Jake Tapper” on Wednesday. “Short run matters, too. Nobody knows what the impact of these tariffs is going to be on the economy.”

'We're All Dead': GOP Senator Reacts To Trump Tariffs

While he voted in favor Wednesday of Trump retaining the emergency powers he used to impose his Canada tariffs, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) has some concerns.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Cruisertrash]

I’ve often wondered if health insurance companies should be regulated like a utility? Basically set a max profit margin. BCBS management make bank, they work hard but are incredibly well paid.

I mean, I personally view the concept of government (talking about federal or state here) as an entity that exists to do work that is truly in the common interest or benefit of it's citizens, in a way that is the most in common with all people. Roads, electricity, water, education, etc ... health care?