Trump tariffs

[nuclearlemon]

while i appreciate the wanting to get america back to manufacturing and i am seeing big companies pouring millions of dollars in, they all seem to be big tech companies. will there be jobs for the blue collar workers in these investments? or, is this just a leveraging point for trump to get other countries to come to the bargaining table?

 

[ScaldedDog]

while i appreciate the wanting to get america back to manufacturing and i am seeing big companies pouring millions of dollars in, they all seem to be big tech companies. will there be jobs for the blue collar workers in these investments? or, is this just a leveraging point for trump to get other countries to come to the bargaining table?

I don't think lower end manufacturing jobs are coming back, and we probably don't want them to. If Nike, for example, moved their production to the US (not back, as I don't think it's ever been here), $140 running shoes would cost a lot more, and Nike would never be able to sustain their current 40+% gross margins. Consumers wouldn't buy, shareholders would sell, and no jobs would have been created.

Some of the higher end manufacturing could come back, though. My former employer - a well known tech company - moved manufacturing of even their high-end products across the border from Texas years ago, and that sort of thing might reverse. It's also possible, I suppose, that some call-center type jobs might come back.

To your point, this is all about negotiation. Sometimes the big stick has to not just be carried, but swung, and these tariffs are just a big stick. As I heard from some talking head the other day, it's also helpful in negotiations if one's negotiating partner thinks you're crazy.

My $.02,

Mark

 

[DanInDenver]

Is the hedge a new car with a zero deductible extended warranty?

WSJ
Although Trump paused certain tariffs on Wednesday, those still in place are expected to raise the prices of a range of products. Tariffs on cars and auto parts in particular would in turn push up the cost of insurance and repairs, analysts said.

Those increases might not be as sharp as the thousands of dollars that tariffs are predicted to add to vehicle prices, but they would reach far more consumers. That means drivers’ best strategy for dodging auto tariffs’ biggest financial impacts—holding on to their existing cars—is about to get more expensive.

Sticking with your current ride is “still going to save you money, but you’re not going to be completely unaffected,” said Brian Moody, executive editor at online marketplace Autotrader.

The costs of car repairs and insurance have already soared 27% and 53%, respectively, during the past three years, far outpacing overall inflation, according to Labor Department data.

Auto Tariffs Are Still On—and Would Raise the Cost of Just Owning a Car — The Wall Street Journal

Higher repair and insurance bills await people sticking with current ride

apple.news

 

[mcgaskins]

Is the hedge a new car with a zero deductible extended warranty?
...
The costs of car repairs and insurance have already soared 27% and 53%, respectively, during the past three years, far outpacing overall inflation, according to Labor Department data.

Since 2018, we've had at least one EV in our driveway (currently have 2), and one of the most overlooked benefits is the minimal maintenance cost. No fluids to change, no brake wear to speak of, and other than tires which EVs love to consume because of the weight and power, we have had to spend basically $0 in 7 years on repairs and maintenance other than a cabin air filter and washer fluid.

I bought the current 200 exactly 5 years ago and have spent thousands on repairs and maintenance even though I've only put 30k miles on it. Now of course that's apples and oranges, but even just the cost of fluids makes a great case for a reliable EV as a daily driver. Even though I used to change my own oil, I have been using a good independent shop for a few years now for convenience, and their rate is $170. Assuming a normal person gets 3 oil changes per year at $510, that's over $3,500 in oil alone over the course of 7 years before any other typical repairs and maintenance. We charge overnight off-peak and pay a little under $0.03/mile for energy vs $0.22/mile for the 200 (better example would be $0.10/mile for a car getting 30mpg at $3/gallon). Basically any good EV will be a fraction of the cost to run and will most likely be more reliable than an ICE car.

There is one concerning factor with EVs however and that is cost and time to repair accidents. Often EVs are just totaled because the body repair industry doesn't have the tools, access, or expertise to fix them, and I've seen reports of pretty minor incidents leading to months in the shop and eye watering repair bills. Although our EVs have only been slightly more to insure than the Land Cruisers, it is one area that's concerning for the future.

That is a long way of saying if someone is interested in minimizing their out of pocket costs for running and repairing a car in the future, an EV is the easiest way to do it. The good news for consumers is EVs have depreciated like crazy lately, so purchasing one has never been more affordable as well.

 

[Crash]

Since 2018, we've had at least one EV in our driveway (currently have 2), and one of the most overlooked benefits is the minimal maintenance cost. No fluids to change, no brake wear to speak of, and other than tires which EVs love to consume because of the weight and power, we have had to spend basically $0 in 7 years on repairs and maintenance other than a cabin air filter and washer fluid.

I bought the current 200 exactly 5 years ago and have spent thousands on repairs and maintenance even though I've only put 30k miles on it. Now of course that's apples and oranges, but even just the cost of fluids makes a great case for a reliable EV as a daily driver. Even though I used to change my own oil, I have been using a good independent shop for a few years now for convenience, and their rate is $170. Assuming a normal person gets 3 oil changes per year at $510, that's over $3,500 in oil alone over the course of 7 years before any other typical repairs and maintenance. We charge overnight off-peak and pay a little under $0.03/mile for energy vs $0.22/mile for the 200 (better example would be $0.10/mile for a car getting 30mpg at $3/gallon). Basically any good EV will be a fraction of the cost to run and will most likely be more reliable than an ICE car.

There is one concerning factor with EVs however and that is cost and time to repair accidents. Often EVs are just totaled because the body repair industry doesn't have the tools, access, or expertise to fix them, and I've seen reports of pretty minor incidents leading to months in the shop and eye watering repair bills. Although our EVs have only been slightly more to insure than the Land Cruisers, it is one area that's concerning for the future.

That is a long way of saying if someone is interested in minimizing their out of pocket costs for running and repairing a car in the future, an EV is the easiest way to do it. The good news for consumers is EVs have depreciated like crazy lately, so purchasing one has never been more affordable as well.

Loving our 2024 RAV4 Prime hybrid for the reasons given here. Plus, it has over 300hp.

 

[60wag]

An interesting article on Digi-Key and the tariffs: https://www.npr.org/2025/04/24/nx-s1-5332209/digikey-tariff-small-minnesota-town-big-company

 

[DaveInDenver]

An interesting article on Digi-Key and the tariffs: https://www.npr.org/2025/04/24/nx-s1-5332209/digikey-tariff-small-minnesota-town-big-company

This stuff isn't new to Digikey, Mouser, Arrow, Avnet (Newark in the U.S.) or really any electronics distributor. Knowing how to navigate import/export is pretty critical to their business. I think they picked Digikey to profile because of the majors they're the most aw-shucks, domestic-centric. Mouser, Avnet and Arrow are already highly international, warehouses and offices all over the globe. They're also older than Digikey, which only started I think to really grow in the late 1990s. When I first entered in the field Digikey wasn't a major distributor but more of a surplus outlet. They did well leveraging the direct to consumer web market right when Radio Shack was stumbling. There were others, Sparkfun, Jameco, but Digikey was the one that made the right steps at the right time.

 

[DanInDenver]

This stuff isn't new to Digikey, Mouser, Arrow, Avnet/Farnell/Newark or really any electronics distributor. Knowing how to navigate import/export is pretty critical to their business. I think they picked Digikey to profile because of the majors they're the most aw-shucks, domestic-centric. Mouser, Avnet and Arrow are already highly international, warehouses and offices all over the globe.

The unpredictability of the administration is certainly new. Of course they know how to navigate import/export, why they have lasted so long.
What no one knows is how to navigate when governed by fiat.
I think they were highlighted as an example of a solid US based business in a rural community that could be lost due the whims of a late night rant on a poorly subscribed social media platform.

 

[DaveInDenver]

The unpredictability of the administration is certainly new. Of course they know how to navigate import/export, why they have lasted so long.
What no one knows is how to navigate when governed by fiat.
I think they were highlighted as an example of a solid US based business in a rural community that could be lost due the whims of a late night rant on a poorly subscribed social media platform.

I've gotten warnings from all the places for years on when tariffs are changing, when to buy to avoid them, when a supplier is moving. Taiwan and China have been a moving target politically so manufacturers have been moving to Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Mexico (T.I. moved quite a bit of production right across the border, kind of like Toyota). Off shoring has been a fact of life in electrical engineering since the 1980s. I had a job in St. Louis where I showed up to locked doors one Monday during the height of the Dotcom Boom. The division was closed and our jobs moved to Germany. It's a significant part of the reason I ended up in Colorado.

I mean, I don't think the scatterbrain way Trump's doing it helps anyone. In fact ultimately I think tariffs hurt an economy long term, but ours is facing a double barrel in having the reserve currency, too. The trend is to laziness since we don't have to work at being quality and cost competitive when all we have to do is print more money to buy more stuff. Raising tariffs would create a short term trade balancing if the demand is strong enough to absorb the cost. Any effect is transitory, though. But it's fine to try to protect your domestic economy, I've said that. Digikey needs to do what seems right for Digikey and their people there.

But then again I'm a sound money believer, that the only way to global stability is a truly independent money that no one controls. Bretton Woods worked for a while until the U.S. undercut the system and France (Jacques Rueff most specifically) called us on it. When they started requesting gold for their Dollars at the agreed value of $35/ounce the game was up, Nixon had no choice. That was the moment when the U.S. economic outcome was set. The slow motion trainwreck that happened since wasn't absolutely inevitable economically, rather it was mainly predictable politically. David Hume described the scenario before the united States even existed and probably played into the thinking of the Founders.

Price–specie flow mechanism - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Jacques Rueff - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ScaldedDog]

Good points, Dave. This from Risk Factors section (p.17) of the Arrow Electronics 10K, released March 25:

The company’s global business also could be negatively affected by trade barriers, such as tariffs, and other governmental protectionist measures, which may decrease demand for the company’s products. Such measures can be imposed suddenly and unpredictably [emphasis mine - Mark] and may increase the prices of many of the products that the company purchases from its suppliers.

Full doc at https://investor.arrow.com/financials/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=18308755

Mark