so who's ordering a Rivian?

[DaveInDenver]

Dave I thought the gas fired plants in TX were not winterized which affected their capacity when the NG wouldn’t flow.

Texas largely relies on natural gas for power. It wasn’t ready for the extreme cold.

Texas largely relies on natural gas — especially during times of high demand — to power the state. Experts say natural gas infrastructure, from pumping it out of the ground to the plants in city centers, was unprepared for the plunging temperatures brought by the winter storm.

www.google.com

I wonder if Tesla already knows this and is anticipating selling roof solar arrays for homes to meet some of the charging demand?

Could very well have been several balls dropped. If I'd make a point about Texas it would mainly be to indicate the fragility of the grid. It's not a simple blame since we got there due to regulation (rational and knee jerk), social misunderstanding (NIMBY being a real contributor), corporate greed, displaced responsibility by not accepting consequences of decision up-and-down the chain.

One point about gas, though, is Texas doesn't rely on it for heat nearly to the extent we do here. So that's another layer. We pay Xcel higher rates because deferring maintenance isn't optional but it also means we need to make sure we balance supply and demand because we may face a choice of heat or lights if we squeeze too hard or rely too heavily on importing via long distance trucking and pipelines. The question of locality I think factors in.

The coal mines are just across the border from Craig, so it's a pretty reliable system that's worked for 50+ years. This is a larger policy question, again not simple, and of recognizing the end-to-end impacts. We import components and complete solar panels and turbines so we don't see the mining and production that took place and we're only now seeing the useful life of the first generation of these technologies ending. There's old fiberglass turbine blades, for one example, starting to pile up in some places as they have a lifespan of about 25 years. So we have to start thinking about the coming jump in waste as we ramp up installations of those.

 

[nuclearlemon]

We import components and complete solar panels and turbines so we don't see the mining and production that took place and we're only now seeing the useful life of the first generation of these technologies ending. There's old fiberglass turbine blades, for one example, starting to pile up in some places as they have a lifespan of about 25 years. So we have to start thinking about the coming jump in waste as we ramp up installations of those.

technically, we've been seeing the waste for decades. the 20- 25 year lifespan only applies to newer blades on the turbines. the casper dump had in excess of 1100 blades in it in november and that's just one dump sight.

 

[satchel]

I've been debating going with an EV down the road for a family car so I can use up some of the extra solar I produce. I have a feeling once more and more people switch to EV's, the market for solar on the roof will go up and help offset some of the demand/supply issues. I had an old EV smart car for a commuter for a few years and it was great. The instant heat is so nice.

 

[DaveInDenver]

I've been debating going with an EV down the road for a family car so I can use up some of the extra solar I produce. I have a feeling once more and more people switch to EV's, the market for solar on the roof will go up and help offset some of the demand/supply issues. I had an old EV smart car for a commuter for a few years and it was great. The instant heat is so nice.

It's more than the panels, unless you're home all day you have to store the energy for use overnight. You'd need your work to have a charging method.

To charge a Telsa Model 3 small pack completely will require storing about 50 kW-hr, which put into 12V group 27 (using 100 A-hr) would be 42 batteries fully drained each night. Using 6 hours peak daylight that would require 8.33 kW, which is 500 sq-ft or 29 x 280 watt panels, and a suitable sized inverter.

If you want to do the minimum level 2 that would be a 2kW/240V inverter to get you about 12 miles of charging per hour. This would fully recharge a Model 3 in 24 hours. To do a full charge overnight (8 hours or so) would require the full 7.2 kW/240V that's equivalent to a 30A outlet.

Of course for commuting you're probably not going to use the full pack each day at whatever it gets, 300 miles. So if your commute is maybe 100 miles round trip you can reduce all that or plan on a full charge over a weekend perhaps.

 

[satchel]

It's more than the panels, unless you're home all day you have to store the energy for use overnight. You'd need your work to have a charging method.

To charge a Telsa Model 3 small pack completely will require storing about 50 kW-hr, which put into 12V group 27 (using 100 A-hr) would be 42 batteries fully drained each night. Using 6 hours peak daylight that would require 8.33 kW, which is 500 sq-ft or 29 x 280 watt panels, and a suitable sized inverter.

If you want to do the minimum level 2 that would be a 2kW/240V inverter to get you about 12 miles of charging per hour. This would fully recharge a Model 3 in 24 hours. To do a full charge overnight (8 hours or so) would require the full 7.2 kW/240V that's equivalent to a 30A outlet.

Of course for commuting you're probably not going to use the full pack each day at whatever it gets, 300 miles. So if your commute is maybe 100 miles round trip you can reduce all that or plan on a full charge over a weekend perhaps.

Correct, if I were traveling enough every day to fully use up a model 3 pack I would absolutely need more panels than what I currently have, but i'm making 15-20kw more than I use each day currently, so I could use up most of that and if I need to I could add a few more panels and even add a powerwall to store the energy.

I don't think any of it is insurmountable if you wanted to go the path of doing all that without having the grid at all. I was quoted for some of that capability (powerwall battery storage with an EV charger installed) but decided to stay on the grid for now, so not a big deal for me to add more panels and battery storage if needed. I would imagine the more old EV's are scrapped and their batteries are recycled, that pricing for home battery storage, like the powerwall, will get cheaper.

Edit - For now, assuming I don't drive more than 100 miles a day I'm providing all the power I would need. I just send more than I need to the elec company during the day and pull it from them at night (when elec demand is low), but I could up my solar panels if I wanted to reduce my power demand from the provider. All I need is a charger installed, same as anyone that doesn't have solar.

 

[r.swany]

Despite all of the general range/charging challenges of EV the Rivian and Bollinger trucks are going to be sweet. Even the Hummer is pretty amazing and looks good too (I never thought I'd say that). But what about Alpha Motors? The Alpha Wolf is one iteration away from being the electric truck the people want 🙌🙌

More importantly, what I really want to know: Who's going to be the first one to drop a Tesla Crate Motor in their 80?

Or if you really want to do it right and have 100K laying around: Electric GT 💪

 

[ScaldedDog]

Jeep is showing a JL at Easter Jeep with an electric motor in front of their standard (pardon the pun) 6-speed manual. Interesting idea, though not at all interesting to me, as I mentioned earlier.

Mark

 

[DaveInDenver]

Correct, if I were traveling enough every day to fully use up a model 3 pack I would absolutely need more panels than what I currently have, but i'm making 15-20kw more than I use each day currently, so I could use up most of that and if I need to I could add a few more panels and even add a powerwall to store the energy.

I don't think any of it is insurmountable if you wanted to go the path of doing all that without having the grid at all. I was quoted for some of that capability (powerwall battery storage with an EV charger installed) but decided to stay on the grid for now, so not a big deal for me to add more panels and battery storage if needed. I would imagine the more old EV's are scrapped and their batteries are recycled, that pricing for home battery storage, like the powerwall, will get cheaper.

Edit - For now, assuming I don't drive more than 100 miles a day I'm providing all the power I would need. I just send more than I need to the elec company during the day and pull it from them at night (when elec demand is low), but I could up my solar panels if I wanted to reduce my power demand from the provider. All I need is a charger installed, same as anyone that doesn't have solar.

Problems are solvable. I'm just putting out food for thought. The point I'm laboring to make is that nothing is done in a vacuum. We're making decisions on electrifying vehicles based on the grid capacity as it is now. But we're simultaneously removing nearly half the generation supply while adding a very significant increase in demand. Everyone adding solar panels to their roof might supply their car but it'll still leave them without lights or heat in the house. It just seems like no one is talking about where all the energy is going to actually come from to sustain current expectations, much less a foundational market shift. The main one it seems to me is storage and density. We've always used sunlight for energy, but the plants concentrate it, the animals that eat the plants further concentrate it, the fossils and minerals further concentrate energy and store it. We're using with each lump of coal or cubic foot of gas the equivalent of some length of time or surface area of the sun that we can't use immediately or until it's concentrated sufficiently. We're going to substitute combustion pollution for battery pollution is all.

 

[satchel]

Problems are solvable. I'm just putting out food for thought. The point I'm laboring to make is that nothing is done in a vacuum. We're making decisions on electrifying vehicles based on the grid capacity as it is now. But we're simultaneously removing nearly half the generation supply while adding a very significant increase in demand. Everyone adding solar panels to their roof might supply their car but it'll still leave them without lights or heat in the house. It just seems like no one is talking about where all the energy is going to actually come from to sustain current expectations, much less a foundational market shift. The main one it seems to me is storage and density. We've always used sunlight for energy, but the plants concentrate it, the animals that eat the plants further concentrate it, the fossils and minerals further concentrate energy and store it. We're using with each lump of coal or cubic foot of gas the equivalent of some length of time or surface area of the sun that we can't use immediately or until it's concentrated sufficiently. We're going to substitute combustion pollution for battery pollution is all.

I'm not sure I follow the thought "Everyone adding solar panels to their roof might supply their car but it'll still leave them without lights or heat in the house." Last year I used on average 35kwh per day for what I need in my house. This year I generate 50kwh+ per day (25 panels). That gives me all I need for my house and 15-20 for a car or whatever else I may need. I get that if I need to fully charge an EV from empty in a day for some reason I would use more than I generated, but on those rare occasions where I need to pull an additional 20-30kwh from the utilities, all I'm doing is pulling what I pulled every day last year.

I may not be understanding your point, and my apologies if this is steering the thread away too much. I would agree that if everyone switched over to EV's while power supply is being cut in half and nothing else is done that it would be an issue.

 

[DaveInDenver]

I'm not sure I follow the thought "Everyone adding solar panels to their roof might supply their car but it'll still leave them without lights or heat in the house." Last year I used on average 35kwh per day for what I need in my house. This year I generate 50kwh+ per day (25 panels). That gives me all I need for my house and 15-20 for a car or whatever else I may need. I get that if I need to fully charge an EV from empty in a day for some reason I would use more than I generated, but on those rare occasions where I need to pull an additional 20-30kwh from the utilities, all I'm doing is pulling what I pulled every day last year.

I may not be understanding your point, and my apologies if this is steering the thread away too much. I would agree that if everyone switched over to EV's while power supply is being cut in half and nothing else is done that it would be an issue.

You're in the vast minority of having solar is my point. About 2% of our power comes from all the solar, commercial, residential, etc. installed. By 2030 we need to replace the roughly 28,0000,000,000 kW-hr annually used (about half of the total and this does not reflect a significant shift to EV) in Colorado that is currently coming from coal plants that are to be shut down.

Bearing in mind that coal and gas are 24/7/365 that means that every single house needs to generate and store about 75% of its own power. I live in a relatively affluent part of GJ and it's 1-in-25 maybe that have solar. It's a monstrous financial and infrastructure undertaking to replace the base load we rely upon. Turbines, panels and batteries don't just show up and we're not developing new sources of natural gas to use as subsitute (which is what I'm referring, if there's a fixed supply of gas we'll have to decide whether to use it for heat or to generate electricity). I don't have the money to spend on it, anyway. I will have to when the price per kW-hr rises as supply shrinks, I know that. It'll be a bridge to cross eventually, maybe it's always been there. Peak oil/coal/gas has been the elephant in the room since the 1970s, though we never seem to actually reach it.

Same with gasoline, though. Even at $4 or $5 or maybe $10 per gallon it's still cheaper to keep what I got than to start from zero with a different car.

 

[satchel]

You're in the vast minority of having solar is my point. About 2% of our power comes from all the solar, commercial, residential, etc. installed. By 2030 we need to replace the roughly 28,0000,000,000 kW-hr annually used (about half of the total and this does not reflect a significant shift to EV) in Colorado that is currently coming from coal plants that are to be shut down.

Bearing in mind that coal and gas are 24/7/365 that means that every single house needs to generate and store about 75% of its own power. I live in a relatively affluent part of GJ and it's 1-in-25 maybe that have solar. It's a monstrous financial and infrastructure undertaking to replace the base load we rely upon. Turbines, panels and batteries don't just show up. I don't have the money to spend on it, anyway. I will have to when the price per kW-hr rises as supply shrinks, I know that. It'll be a bridge to cross eventually.

Same with gasoline, though. Even at $4 or $5 or maybe $10 per gallon it's still cheaper to keep what I got than to start from zero with a different car.

Home owners wouldn't need to store 75% just like I don't. You just send your overage to the utility, who need it more during the day, and then take it back when you are no longer producing. How much of an impact that is having on the utilities I couldn't say, especially if demand from day to night switches from everyone charging cars over night. You can also add solar for the same cost as your elec bill, so I think as people become more used to the rising electric demands it will be something that is considered more, but yeah I hear ya.

Here's a silver lining. Maybe there will be so much EV demand that electric prices spike like crazy and gas becomes the cheaper alternative, and big gas guzzling trucks will become all the rage and the Land Cruiser resurfaces for the NA market!

 

[DaveInDenver]

Home owners wouldn't need to store 75% just like I don't. You just send your overage to the utility, who need it more during the day, and then take it back when you are no longer producing. How much of an impact that is having on the utilities I couldn't say. You can also add solar for the same cost as your elec bill, so I think as people become more used to the rising electric demands it will be something that is considered more, but yeah I hear ya.

The calculation works now because of the relatively small solar generators are supplementing peak daylight demands. When there is no base load generation the status quo is changed. It'll take 50% penetration of installed, distributed solar instead of 2% (or whatever it is currently). You're selling a drop in the bucket back to Xcel because we've concentrated the bulk of generation to large plants (which in this case is mostly good, economy of scale and efficiency are improved despite concentration of emissions).

The flow in-vs-out is flipped when the generation % break down goes from coal/gas/alternative of 45/30/25 as it is currently to 0/30/70 (assuming we want the same heat capacity/cost of gas as is now). IOW the potential energy of coal/gas is stored in huge mounds of coal and tanks of gas. The potential energy of solar and wind are banks of batteries, reversible generator/pumps of water, lots of flywheels somewhere.

No one seems to discuss for every coal plant taken offline there must be an equal quantity of panels, turbines and storage added. If we don't want the current standard of living to change anyway, never mind adding new demands of EVs. What I see seems to be people ignoring the mundane stuff and focusing on the shiny new toy.

We can only go by what we know is true right now. One assumption of which is it takes about 68 sq-ft of PV to generate 1kW. So to replace all the coal (say 12,450,000 kW in Colorado) would require 846,600,000 sq-ft of panels on a 1:1 generation ratio. But since we only get a few hours of peak solar, even assuming 8 hours (which is high year-round) that means we need at least three times that, 2,539,800,000 sq-ft for consumption (e.g. use over time).

That's 58,305 acres of panels. For scale Colorado National Monument is about 21,000 acres. And then we need a place to store that energy (a billion batteries?) so it can be used over the full 24 hour period. We're rearranging resource use, not eliminating it. Who wants a National Monument sized field of panels in their backyard? It's got to go somewhere. On everyone's roofs makes sense but who's to pay for it?

I'm not anti-EV nor pro-coal/oil/gas, per se. I just think we're collectively naive and are being led to believe in rainbow pooping unicorns that can't really meet oversold expectations. There's a great deal of impact and cost not being considered.

 

[AlpineAccess]

Power walls (and their non-branded versions) seem like a reasonable option for those who want uninterrupted service while fast charging without wanting to run expanded line service or in areas the grid is being scaled down. They aren't cheap by any means, but are a great backup power source, continue to get more economical every year, and can be setup for on and off grid (or hybrid) charging.

We don't own an electric car but do have family and friends with electric vehicles charge their vehicles here a couple dozen times a year. Our newer 240 Garage outlet for welding (50AMP) has been a pretty nice upgrade over the 120v 20AMP outlet, but honestly that was working ok for topping cars off or throwing on enough charge on cars like Volts. For Tesla's the 240 is way better, but the 120 got it done too if for partial charging.

So far I think the rapid charging 80AMP is an interesting capability to have for people at home but not sure its totally necessary for those who are commuting and not really needing to hammer out a full charge in an hour or so.

I think for people still hammering 100-300 miles out a day on an electric would like the upgraded line service or an ICE vehicle used for the bigger drives. Currently there seems to be room for both in most driveways. I think an electric would compliment an ICE vehicle well for many house holds and the charging not be a greater inconvenience or cost than gas stations and other maintenance would be. Our experience as an outsider looking in so far has been relatively straight forward.

 

[mcgaskins]

This is an interesting perspective when thinking about why the EV push is happening now.

 

[DanS]

Despite all of the general range/charging challenges of EV the Rivian and Bollinger trucks are going to be sweet. Even the Hummer is pretty amazing and looks good too (I never thought I'd say that). But what about Alpha Motors? The Alpha Wolf is one iteration away from being the electric truck the people want 🙌🙌

View attachment 93828

This has my attention. It's basically the same size as my hilux (which is perfect), and it's not terribly expensive. Or at least, it's projected to be relatively affordable.

More importantly, what I really want to know: Who's going to be the first one to drop a Tesla Crate Motor in their 80?


View attachment 93827

This is also interesting. I'd love to convert a cruiser to all electric, if for no other reason than to be a perfect snowplow truck! Instant heat, and only going 5 miles from my house (which is where it can easily charge up...). Of course, I don't know how any of these conversions handle the heating system, and that matters a GREAT deal to me...

Dan

 

[White Stripe]

I don't understand electric vehicles working on a large scale with the current design. I don't see a lot of foresight given in the use of them on a mass scale. I do see them being useful by quite a few people that can charge overnight in a garage that simply commute back and forth. When I drive around in Denver there are a ton of areas where people have to park on the street. You never see a electric car parked in these areas. They would have to charge at a charging station somewhere. So they would have to sit for 30 minutes as it charges. Curious how the new synthetic fuel by Porsche becomes more developed since it is a very clean fuel.

 

[AlpineAccess]

I don't understand electric vehicles working on a large scale with the current design. I don't see a lot of foresight given in the use of them on a mass scale. I do see them being useful by quite a few people that can charge overnight in a garage that simply commute back and forth. When I drive around in Denver there are a ton of areas where people have to park on the street. You never see a electric car parked in these areas. They would have to charge at a charging station somewhere. So they would have to sit for 30 minutes as it charges. Curious how the new synthetic fuel by Porsche becomes more developed since it is a very clean fuel.

Not a solution to this issue but might work for some. For commuters I've noticed a number of businesses in our area have put in charging stations.

The new apartments being built a few blocks from my house have charging stations going in. It looks like 5 parking spaces of probably around 30 will have charging ports.

And the city of loveland has started putting in some charging stations in street parking spaces downtown and in the new parking garage. I think there are like 10 on the street with another series being built in the garage.

I don't think we end up all electric or that owning an electric isn't without some trade offs. A good solution for those who can make it work.

 

[nuclearlemon]

The new apartments being built a few blocks from my house have charging stations going in. It looks like 5 parking spaces of probably around 30 will have charging ports.

And the city of loveland has started putting in some charging stations in street parking spaces downtown and in the new parking garage. I think there are like 10 on the street with another series being built in the garage.

i hope these don't end up like the handicap spots at the stores...can't find a parking spot anywhere with 20 designated spots completely empty

 

[AlpineAccess]

i hope these don't end up like the handicap spots at the stores...can't find a parking spot anywhere with 20 designated spots completely empty

Loveland and fort collins' charging spots seem to have really high rates of occupancy. I think it's part of the move to add some more at least in Loveland. I know as I've driven by them I've thought I'm glad I don't need to use one as I wouldn't want to wait In the que.

I don't know how it will be in the long run if the infrastructure builds out to better meet the demand for the spots. The current charging locations that I've seen aren't front and center like handicap spots either.

For loveland once the car is charged (parking is free while charging but the electric is billed) you have a time limit to move it as well before you start getting charged for the parking space. It's done through an app.

 

[nakman]

this is a really interesting discussion here. What I'm gatering, and where I think most of you are headed, is that the transition to electric is better if more people become more accountable to their power consumption. So if you add to your usage, you are finding ways to offset that add by contributing with solar, or reducing usage elsewhere, or both.

It's always interesting to see the other side of the coin on this stuff, one direction I hope this country goes is towards more waste burning, as that's been proven to work well as a means to generate electricity in a safe and low-emissions manner.. certainly better from a total impact perspective than shipping waste to another continent so that it can be "recycled."