Corona Virus Panic

[Rzeppa]

According to the Denver Post, cases are still pretty low here, around a hundred new cases a day, with hospitalizations and deaths way down from where they were in April. Going by memory from the latest radio newscast deaths have been in the single digits from zero per day to one or two per day over the past week, and hospitalizations are around a hundred or two statewide, which is way good and actually less than the seasonal flu.

I could put this in the political thread but here goes: BLM protests and riots are okay, but Trump Rallys are irresponsible gatherings. I am not Trump supporter but certainly see the hypocrisy in so called "news" reporting.

Back on-topic from when I started this thread on March 9, I am convinced that wrecking the economy was not worth the public health benefits and that a better way to lessen the virus' effect on public health would have been closer to what Sweden did. Not EXACTLY what Sweden did, but more similar.

 

[DouglasVB]

We received some updated guidance a few days ago: https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnrsw/om/COVID-19.html

This is effectively more restrictive than what we had locally before and now bars service members from visiting public beaches and pools among other things. One of my students was going to go to a local hotel with a pool with his wife for a night away from their apartment when this came through. His wife went to the hotel and he stayed at home. Poor guy ended up working on his thesis instead of enjoying some socially distanced pool time.

We're still on the naughty list for travel restrictions because of continued increase in case count locally. Everything that I was supposed to travel for is cancelled at least through the fall at this point and I'll be teleworking probably at least through December.

 

[Rzeppa]

The virus is still hanging around. Even though we're allowed to come out from our bunkers it's still out there. Colorado is among the states that have had no BIG spikes, but we have had increases in cases, some from increased testing and some from actual increased infections from frat parties and stuff in Boulder. Latest intel is that young people (<30) are basically thinking that "okay it just kills old farts and we don't care". True, according to latest stats >80% of deaths are >80 yo. But also >50% of new infections are <30YO. On top of that, a significant fraction of those <30 are getting sick, an requiring hospitalization. Hmmm.

 

[DaveInDenver]

I am convinced that wrecking the economy was not worth the public health benefits

That's an understatement. Was the and will be any future knee jerks reactions worth it?

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

This estimate GDP growth comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and assumes no new course changes. They think the GDP hit has improved this month up to "just" a 40% contraction in the economy.

​

Latest estimate: -39.5 percent — June 26, 2020​

​

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -39.5 percent on June 26, up from -46.6 percent on June 25. After this morning’s data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from -49.7 percent to -38.0 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -54.4 percent to -58.6 percent.​

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

Everybody's dumping on Sweden, but if you think about it they did what was smart. Could they have mandated "necessary/safe" social distancing precautions? Yes. Would it have made a difference? Yes. But, what is that difference? NY mandated all of the above precautions as well as mandating that nursing homes keep their Covid patients. Over 43% of NY deaths were nursing home/AL patients. All those deaths were well within the stats Jeff and others have posted. New positives are just that - new positives. We can't all be troglodytes. If you, or your sister's cousin's best friend or grandmother on Fakebook, are/is in a high risk, or otherwise concerned category, then encourage them to protect themselves. That's what makes sense. Don't lock the world down. If 125K die instead of 250K, or the 10M projected, it really doesn't matter. People die - "walking their doggies." I'm sure that when the number crunchers have their day they will find that there were far fewer deaths from car crashes, cancer, heart disease, obesity and other accidents. Will that offset the total number of those who died of Covid? No. Will it take a big chunk out of the total deaths annually? Yes.

 

[Rzeppa]

There is a piece of data I wish we could learn, maybe even the public health experts and epidemiologists don't know this, and I certainly haven't seen anything published in the news sources I read and listen to. But what is the number of infectious people roaming around out in the community? Is it 1 in 100? Is it 1 in 10? Is it 5 in 1000? Wouldn't that be a much more useful number to know than just "daily cases"?

 

[DaveInDenver]

There is a piece of data I wish we could learn, maybe even the public health experts and epidemiologists don't know this, and I certainly haven't seen anything published in the news sources I read and listen to. But what is the number of infectious people roaming around out in the community? Is it 1 in 100? Is it 1 in 10? Is it 5 in 1000? Wouldn't that be a much more useful number to know than just "daily cases"?

We'll know who killed Jimmy Hoffa and probably unified physics before we know that.

 

[Romer]

Everybody's dumping on Sweden, but if you think about it they did what was smart. Could they have mandated "necessary/safe" social distancing precautions? Yes. Would it have made a difference? Yes. But, what is that difference? NY mandated all of the above precautions as well as mandating that nursing homes keep their Covid patients. Over 43% of NY deaths were nursing home/AL patients. All those deaths were well within the stats Jeff and others have posted. New positives are just that - new positives. We can't all be troglodytes. If you, or your sister's cousin's best friend or grandmother on Fakebook, are/is in a high risk, or otherwise concerned category, then encourage them to protect themselves. That's what makes sense. Don't lock the world down. If 125K die instead of 250K, or the 10M projected, it really doesn't matter. People die - "walking their doggies." I'm sure that when the number crunchers have their day they will find that there were far fewer deaths from car crashes, cancer, heart disease, obesity and other accidents. Will that offset the total number of those who died of Covid? No. Will it take a big chunk out of the total deaths annually? Yes.

Soo, being older I am a strong believer in wearing a mask and social distancing. If you do that right you don't have to shut the economy down. It is scenes like large parties with no distancing or masks, people on the beach, Trump doing a rally and people who don't want to wear a a mask because it infringes on their freedom that in my opinion is driving the panic that is causing states to roll back the openings. Those attitudes are why the US still has 25% of the infections with only 4% of the worlds population and why the EU will not let US citizens in. Our collective attitude makes us a risk to ourselves and others

Anyone who thinks this is overblown or a hoax should just look at raw data and ignore the news services. The facts and data clearly show this to be a huge problem.

The infringes on their freedom to me doesn't make sense as you could say Seat belts infringe, having to stop at red lights infringe. It's a public safety measure. People not wearing masks infringes on other rights to live and also to tamp down the rate so the economy can open up more

I know everyone's perspective is different. In my 20's and 30's I felt I was invincible. Now that I am 59 taking care of my late 80's in-laws I know that isnt true and just one slip up could cost them their lives.

 

[Rzeppa]

Well said Ken. I still wish I could know how many contagious people are out in the community. Even a range, and order of magnitude would be better than just "daily cases".

 

[nuclearlemon]

except then you would be panicking over the number of people that the media says has it when there's still a great chance that they don't. the cdc acknowledges that people who just got over a cold could test positive for antibodies...btw, remember when this was all about deaths and numbers in the hospital? now that that is decreasing it's about cases going up. you test more, you get more positives. we're keeping people in a panic for less of a severe threat than the lack of severe threat it was when it was at its height

 

[FJCDan]

Well said Ken, I know how you feel. We have been down to Colorado Springs a couple of times here lately and no one is wearing masks there. Stopped in a convenient store/ Arby’s and 3 families came in with kids none were wearing masks. My Son in law is still having issues since he has recovered from the virus, shortness of breath, cognitive issues and some other issues. He said this is very serious and he is worried about it rising up again. I was watching the nightly news tonight and they mentioned that their are super carriers out there spreading the virus more rapidly than other asymptotic carriers. So be safe and do the right thing.

 

[gungriffin]

Unfortunately it seems that facial coverings have turned into a political stance. I don't understand that. I have friends in South Carolina who say that almost no one there is wearing masks. When they go places while wearing a mask, they have several times felt uneasy with comments they got from people who aren't wearing masks.

I cannot say for sure that a mask works, but if there is even a chance that it could, why not?

 

[Romer]

48,000 new cases in one day today. More than the peak in March or April

 

[DaveInDenver]

What if all these dictates and orders could be making it worse instead of better?

https://medium.com/@JohnPospichal/questions-for-lockdown-apologists-32a9bbf2e247

 

[Romer]

You forgot New Zealand which has essentially eliminated it

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

I think Dave may have a point. Sitting in our houses, essentially getting less fit, is a significant risk factor. Romer - I am assuming you are of German descent since your last name is German - Romer = Roman. And, since this panic was kicked off by a German scientist - plus their perspective and experience is so interesting - I have been following their news. The German society is not like ours. It's much more positive in many ways. Their mindset is much healthier than our own. I'm not surprised they have weathered this so well and are leading research and calls that seem to indicate this is much less of a problem than we thought. No one is saying it's a hoax, but it is overblown. To deny that is fallacious. This is a good article even though it has textual errors. https://inelcos.com/2020/06/15/hend...ronavirus-is-far-less-deadly-than-we-thought/

 

[Romer]

I am not of German decent nor do I see how that would be relevant. I am a 5th generation Colorado Native

And I disagree with your premise that I am being fallacious. I am an engineer and use to looking at facts and data when I make opinions.

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

The US is really getting dragged through the mud in my opinion. We are 3 - 10Xs the population of our nearest neighbors. Our mobility is exponentially higher than any other nation. We have more coming and going on here than anywhere else on the planet. We should be seeing much higher infections and deaths. I keep thinking about how just before this all exploded my wife and I were literally nut to butt in a Nashville bar for hours with at least 200 people then went to the theater with thousands. We have been in contact with SARS-CoV2 positive individuals for months. That includes having all available PPE and having had non at all. It's bad for those who get it and go down. Going on a ventilator meant you had less than a 20% chance of surviving it. It's time to move on and put our attention on more important matters. There is so much swirling in the air right now it is extremely disturbing. I can't watch the news. I really don't want to vote, but I will. We have put off all major money spending aside from our trip to Hawaii in August and are locking down financially right now. I don't know what's coming, but I don't like what the zeitgeist is leaning towards. That said, Covid panickers and their milieu can go on as usual. I know what I need to worry about.

 

[Jenny Cruiser]

I am not of German decent nor do I see how that would be relevant. I am a 5th generation Colorado Native

And I disagree with your premise that I am being fallacious. I am an engineer and use to looking at facts and data when I make opinions.

I hear you. Your name is German, but you're a Coloradoan. You're trained as an engineer, but you work in human resources IIRC. If you think this is not overblown you are wrong wether you believe you're being fallacious or not. I'm a sixth or seventh generation Coloradoan myself depending on what side of the tree you're looking at. I'm proud of that too.

 

[Romer]

Lets just say we agree to disagree. Your view that we should move on and not saving thousands of lives to me doesnt make sense to me