Corona Virus Panic

[DouglasVB]

On the death statistic side of things, my 👸🏻’s mom lost a good friend yesterday who went in for some physical therapy a week or two back, contracted COVID, ended up in the hospital, and then passed away from it. Sounds like he was an otherwise healthy senior citizen. The only place he had been was the PT’s office and he was being careful with things that came into the house. 👸🏻’s mom said that the medical people thought it was a case of someone who was asymptomatic transmitting it to her mom’s friend.

That puts me at around four or five friends of friends (no direct friends yet that I know of) who have died and around a half dozen friends or friends of friends who either are still battling COVID or have recovered to some degree. The closest in physical distance to me is about an hour away up in Santa Cruz. I don’t know anyone directly locally who is a confirmed case.

Hollister Hills, the SRVA near us, is managing the amount of people they’re allowing in very carefully. They’ve shut the gates on a few of their areas today due to being at reduced capacity. Seems like it’s going pretty good so far. We’re still on a shelter in place order here in Monterey county so we’re still sheltering in place. Today I’m working on building an N scale trestle out of twigs I found in the yard. It’ll go with the cabin I built last weekend.

Cabin photos:

My mom is pretty excited by my new-found passion for building tiny N-scale things because she has a little N scale train that she likes to have out at Christmas. However, she said the trestle I’m building looks to sketchy to run her trains across 🤣

It’s looking like maybe by the end of next week as a county we’ll be ready to enter the next phase of reopening. The county is working on hiring and training up enough contact tracers and getting enough PPE stockpiles at the hospitals and senior citizen facilities among a few other tasks they still need to complete in order to meet the state requirements. Our number of active infections is still growing (mainly in the ag sector) but it’s slowing down. 🤞🏻 that we’re close to putting a lid on the situation as a county.

The biggest positive thing to come out of all of this is several of the local breweries now deliver beer within two hours. I’m currently drinking an outstanding IPA. Earlier we had an excellent pilsner. I could get very used to this 😎

I hope everyone else is out having a great weekend and getting some wheeling in! We’re looking forward to getting back on the trail when the state/county/city say we’re in the clear. Please post photos of all the fun you’re having!!!

 

[FJCDan]

Thought I would give an update on our family down in the Springs, we stopped in to see them now that they are now free and clear of Corona. They are doing better but my son in law and oldest Grandson are still having issues. Both are having problems just trying to concentrate on just the simplest of things. They thought he might’ve had a minor stroke but have since ruled that out. Still going to have more testing to do. It was nice to see them, it has been 3 months since we had seen them. And getting to see the new week old baby girl was great,6 Grandchildren and one great Grandson. Wow this family is growing. It’s funny how he has changed his attitude towards this virus, he is now very adamant about wearing masks and social distancing. He also believes that with what he sees going on right now we will have a second wave. Just food for thought. Please be safe out there and protect your selves. This coming from our family who wishes this on no one. They said it was hell when you can’t breathe. Thanks Dan

 

[tancruiser]

I’m sorry but if you don’t want to wear a mask don’t come up here it’s that simple. We’ve done a good job of minimizing Covid up here in the in the mts and to have our population doubled with tourists on a weekend just changed our odds of keeping it that way. Hopefully this will subside soon and we can all wheel again .

 

[Rzeppa]

I have donated over 200 3D printed masks and 35 face shield headbands to my nurse friend at Denver Health. She says they're good for now so I have stopped making masks and face shield head bands, but have a surplus now. If anyone wants one, free to anyone reading this. The filters that go with the masks are N95 rated, although they don't have the actual NIOSH certification. These masks are basically as good as any non-check valve N95 mask, and they conform to your face way better than a home made or surgical mask or bandana - everything you breath in and out goes through the filter. Hit me up at three oh three six seven four four oh four four or at web at american 3d printing dot net.

Details on the masks here:

https://www.makethemasks.com/

 

[DaveInDenver]

If Steamboat doesn't want you come to GJ! We really could use the tourist revenue, so please, please consider shopping and eating here if you visit. We're trying to open, the restaurants in Mesa County are at 50% occupancy now. Not every one made it and found out one of our favorite post-Uncompaghre trip stops down in Delta (Needlerock Brewing) won't be able to re-open. That's a sad one for a lot of people, it was popular all the way from Montrose up to GJ.

We've had an exceptionally beautiful spring, it's too bad so many people missed it. It's been slow tourist season until about 3 weeks ago, so people are starting to venture out. In total here in Mesa County there's been 53 positives, 2,196 negatives, zero deaths with a positive in a population of 146,723 that makes it 0.023% infection rate.

The Colorado River has already peaked from the melt and the hot weather is on the door step (supposed to be upper 90s by the week's end). Just remember why you live here. I've met people who came down from places including Steamboat, so they're not all taking their stay-at-home serious up there anyway.

 

[Inukshuk]

New state "Safer At Home" has eliminated the 10 mile suggested limitation: ""Individuals may participate in local and personal recreation in outside public spaces, as an authorized Necessary Activity, in groups no larger than 10 and practicing social distancing maintaining 6 feet between participants. Travel should occur within an individual’s local community *** or as necessary to access outdoor recreation areas.*** If traveling outside their community, Coloradans are urged to honor all restrictions in place at their destination and avoid travel to counties or municipalities that issue travel restrictions." Lets go Wheeling! https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ie...Q-Y3flgFLq6rH_TzyauQKZZ0B-WgdfvF8My-XmhM3MGz4

 

[DaveInDenver]

If following rules to the letter makes you feel all warm and safe, Mesa County is currently clamped down under a 50-person group limit and establishment like restaurants up to the lesser of 50% occupancy or 175 people maximum.

We're at 53 positives total, most recent in the past month being 5/14/2020 (one) and 4/28/2020 (four). The May 14 is still active, the other 52 are recovered. Total population is 146,723 in the county making the infection rate 0.036%. No deaths either of or even with a positive.

Masks utilization is a coin toss. I've only been required a couple of times so far, those being during platelet donations.

 

[DouglasVB]

Meanwhile a few of the counties that have been at the front of the line with reopening in California are getting nervous as they start to see cases pop up: https://www.redding.com/story/news/...es-cafes-and-stores-back-business/5284880002/

 

[DaveInDenver]

Meanwhile a few of the counties that have been at the front of the line with reopening in California are getting nervous as they start to see cases pop up: https://www.redding.com/story/news/...es-cafes-and-stores-back-business/5284880002/

So the goal is zero? Zero what? Deaths, illnesses or just showing a positive test? Which test, the antibody or PCR? What's the margin of error on the measurement?

Wasn't the goal to flatten the hospital intake curve? I don't remember them saying anything about specific targets. What's the measurement of success we're shooting for? BTW, the county has 49 ICU beds so we'd have been OK even if 92% of the COVID cases happened to be critical.

If it's unemployment, then we're going great. Mesa County added around 1,000 newly unemployed (a jump of 2% in March based on an assumed employable pool of 51,100 people, the most recent BLS reported statistic). So for each positive and now recovered case we put roughly 18 people out of work who are likely still out of work two months on.

So I really do want to know what is the measure of success? We sure as heck failed 1,000 new families of their livelihoods. Mesa County was already operating under a less restrictive "health order" than the state a month ago officially and unofficially I can tell you a whole lot of Denverites were ignoring the orders and coming here anyway. Sure would have been nice if they could have spent some money in town to keep us afloat.

Isn't it time to move on to a new lead scary story? If your county has a crisis then you should deal with it. This one size fits all narrative isn't working. And if it's so bad in Denver then Denver should do a better job of keeping a lid on their problems and not make us pay for it. The state already diverted the emergency money intended for rural towns that Congress helicoptered way back when. So they're stealing our jobs and the money intended to compensate us for the loss of them.

http://blog.mesacounty.us/2020/04/board-comments-on-cares-act-funding.html

"The Mesa County Board of Commissioners submits this letter to express our disbelief and frustration with the apparent lack of communication and coordination with rural communities across Colorado.

On Friday, April 17, 2020, we received news and it is our understanding that allegedly your administration will use the state and local government portion of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) ACT funding, almost $1.7 billion, to balance the state’s budget and make no distribution to local governments under 500,000 population as Congress intended.

We are beyond disappointed at the administration’s intent to take federal economic relief intended to help our communities recover."

 

[DouglasVB]

Oregon's state forests are re-opening for dispersed camping. Hopefully people don't just trash everything again: http://tillamookstateforest.blogspot.com/2020/05/forests-open-for-dispersed-camping.html

 

[J1000]

Lost a friend to COVID a few weeks back. Not to COVID but to suicide or drug overdose...doesn't really make a difference.

 

[Notyourmomslx450]

Lost a friend to COVID a few weeks back. Not to COVID but to suicide or drug overdose...doesn't really make a difference.

Sorry for your loss

 

[ScaldedDog]

We did our usual Memorial Day in Moab last week. It was eerie driving in on Wednesday, as the road into town was deserted. The restaurants were open, but deserted. By the weekend, though it had gotten a lot busier. Pasta Jay's was packed for dinner Saturday night, but the usual Monday rush out of town was quite tame. We saw very few people on the trails we ran.

The worse part was trying to eat on the road. Drive throughs aren't really a thing when towing a trailer.

Sure glad we didn't cancel, as it ended up being a great trip.

Mark

 

[DouglasVB]

Here's an interesting meta-analysis from The Lancet of social distancing, mask-wearing, and eye protection for reduction of COVID transmission: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

The interpretation (copy-pasted):

The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis support physical distancing of 1 m or more and provide quantitative estimates for models and contact tracing to inform policy. Optimum use of face masks, respirators, and eye protection in public and health-care settings should be informed by these findings and contextual factors. Robust randomised trials are needed to better inform the evidence for these interventions, but this systematic appraisal of currently best available evidence might inform interim guidance.

Also this much-touted study on the ineffectiveness of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine is getting pulled back in because the authors found issues with their data sources. It doesn't mean the opposite conclusion from what the study made is true (i.e.: that those two drugs ARE good to use for COVID patients). It just means that the data wasn't good enough to fully draw the conclusion (i.e.: that the those two drugs ARE NOT good to use for COVID patients): https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246

 

[KC Masterpiece]

I

Here's an interesting meta-analysis from The Lancet of social distancing, mask-wearing, and eye protection for reduction of COVID transmission: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

The interpretation (copy-pasted):



Also this much-touted study on the ineffectiveness of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine is getting pulled back in because the authors found issues with their data sources. It doesn't mean the opposite conclusion from what the study made is true (i.e.: that those two drugs ARE good to use for COVID patients). It just means that the data wasn't good enough to fully draw the conclusion (i.e.: that the those two drugs ARE NOT good to use for COVID patients): https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246

Good info.

The biggest lesson I have learned the last few months is that every "expert" is wrong at least 50% of the time.

 

[kurtnkegger]

Data on the Lancet page brought to you by: WHO...

 

[Inukshuk]

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/camping-safety-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

 

[DouglasVB]

The SF Chronicle had something similar for things that local SF folks like to do: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea...o-pools-coronavirus-experts-rate-15334210.php

Down here in Monterey, the county has reopened us for leisure travel but I think we're still on a shelter in place order. It's all a bit confusing just like it has been throughout. Mask wearing rates are very low, especially for out-of-towners who have continued to come down throughout this whole ordeal in spite of what any county or state officials say. Our case count keeps going up and it's accelerating. I guess we're in full YOLO mode now?

 

[Rzeppa]

Pretty much what I have read here in Colorado is that cases, hospitalizations and deaths are going down day by day, but that the virus is still out there lurking. I have donated 200 3D printed masks with N95 rated filters and 35 3D printed face shield headband frames to Denver Health. I have another 70 masks and 20 face shield headbands ready to donate, however the nurse I have been workng with at Denver Heath texted me that they are good and don't need any more. She texted me a picture of a colleague wearing one of the 3D printed face shields I had donated. I have spent around $1k out of pocket and am glad that I am able to do my little part to help the global effort. From everything I have read, we will need to keep up the social distancing (more than lockdowns), mask wearing and hand washing for the foreseeable future until there is a vaccine. I have reopened my store, but wear a (3D printed) mask for when customers come in, and wear the mask whenever grocery shopping or post office or any kind of indoor activity with people who aren't family. My wife and I's biggest worry is her 91 YO dad.

 

[DouglasVB]

My county just issued some guidance on how to do social circles: https://www.co.monterey.ca.us/home/showdocument?id=92314

Basically if you can trust 11 other people to only interact in your group of 12 and only meet outside within some specific parameters, it's okay.

We're getting about a 2-3% increase in cases per day in my county right now. Interesting to watch the statistics on number of cases, percent of tests positive, and various hospitalization statistics.