Does anyone really believe prices will ever come back down? We have proven we will pay anything, why would they want to charge less? I am actually asking, not trying to be political. Just frustrated.
Yes, I believe they will.
For context, I work in the oil industry and have seen similar scenarios in my career.
Before the war with Iran started in late February, the last big spike came when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. That one was shorter than this current price increase, but it was just as painful, and it set the previous street-price records for both gas and diesel.
Diesel has since blown past that record, but gas hasn't topped its 2022 high nationally. That being said, gas is at the highest level ever for this time of year, and this is the first October on record with the national average above $4.
Oil and the products made from it are global commodities, so prices are volatile, as we've all seen. But I think they come down if any of these happen:
- Things get resolved in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens
- Russia and Ukraine reach some kind of resolution
- Ukraine stops hitting Russian refineries
- A global recession, driven by the high price of everything
- Demand for gas and diesel drop as people change habits: EVs, mass transit, less travel, etc.
Some of those will come sooner than others. My bet is demand for refined products falls off a cliff first, most likely from an economic slowdown, and that starts the wave of price decreases and puts other political pressure on leaders around the globe.
Many folks blame this while crisis on the lack of crude, but crude is only part of the problem; the real squeeze is diesel.
Ukraine has been hitting Russian refineries every few days this year, and Russia, which used to export about half its diesel, has banned diesel exports. At the same time, Middle East exports have dried up. There simply isn't enough diesel in the world right now to meet demand.
That will change. It always does. It's just going to hurt until it flips.
Not trying to be political, but Trump has said prices will come down after the midterms, and for market reasons I think that's likely. Maybe not the day after, but I expect several of the things above to line up and push prices down after the election is over. I personally think it will be after the first of the year.
Are oil companies filling the bank accounts right now? Absolutely. But it won't last. Markets have come crashing down after every other global skirmish, and this one will be no different. I expect gas to get back into the $2–$3 range, which is right where we were before this all started. Diesel will probably stay higher for longer, but it'll ease too.
Hopefully we see relief sooner than later, but I do believe we will see relief at some point.
usually it's about $0.80-$1.00 less than regular 
.