so who's ordering a Rivian?

nakman

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Well once there are actual Rivians here to compare, we'll have real data on mileage/consumption. In the videos you'll see reports of mileage dropping to 25% when actually wheeling, like deep sand... so the 400 mile range is more like 100 miles. Pulling a 40 on a trailer up to the tunnel is definitely going to be different than coasting down Kenosha with a tail wind... I fully intend to do both and can't wait to see the actual numbers. If there was a point today, it's don't buy a Rivian thinking you'll save money on gas. I did the math comparing my wife's hybrid RX450 to my buddie's Leaf, and we were within pennies.... if you measure consumption in terms of how much money it costs to drive, I am guessing this will fall somewhere around a Tacoma.

edit: posted all that before Matt posted that stuff above, so maybe I'll change my mind here, maybe not.
 

DaveInDenver

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MPGe does the conversion the other way by using 33.7 kW-hr per gallon equivalent assuming all alternative vehicles are 96% efficient and flipping the target outcome to measure miles per unit energy on the EV, e.g. fuel consumption instead of fuel economy yield the same measurement in the end.

A RAV4 does about 400 W-h/mile using the EPA 84 MPGe assumptions, meaning a regular RAV4 is 35% efficient normalized to its EV sister per EPA conditions on both. It's "toe-may-toe" "toe-mah-toe" in showing the comparison with a difference set of assumptions.
 
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J1000

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I found that driving my LEAF elevation change didn't really matter as long as the ending location was the same elevation as the starting location. What goes up, must come down! Think about the massive regen you will get down Kenosha.
 

nakman

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I am looking more at $/destination. Today I can drive from here to Moab in a GX470 for about $60. I can drive from here to Moab in an RX450h for about $25. My assumption is a Rivian will take about $50 to get there, which about the same as a Tacoma. Using today's gas and electrical prices.

Where it will get interesting is what happens to gas prices in the future, and also what happens to electricity prices. And then what if I have a 5kw solar system on my roof at home, which over produces my current electrical consumption.. I know nothing is really free but it will kinda feel like free gas when I can plug an EV into a solar setup.
 

DaveInDenver

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I am looking more at $/destination. Today I can drive from here to Moab in a GX470 for about $60. I can drive from here to Moab in an RX450h for about $25. My assumption is a Rivian will take about $50 to get there, which about the same as a Tacoma. Using today's gas and electrical prices.

Where it will get interesting is what happens to gas prices in the future, and also what happens to electricity prices. And then what if I have a 5kw solar system on my roof at home, which over produces my current electrical consumption.. I know nothing is really free but it will kinda feel like free gas when I can plug an EV into a solar setup.
That's the valid total system cost approach and there's so many distortions in it. An increase in gasoline tax (er "fee") is being walked through the state legislature. They're going to raise the annual EV registration as well ($50 to $150 I think $90) to offset. The cost for electricity in Colorado right now is about $0.13/kW-hr, which is about $4.55/gallon equivalent in gasoline (simple energy, not per mile). It's implicit in electricity cost because the utility price rolls in the conversion inefficiency already so using it in an EV doesn't incur much more loss. So the cost per mile is the best metric. At $3/gallon with ~25% efficiency vs. $4.55 with ~95% efficiency, blah, blah. The bottom line is how many beers must I give up to get from here to there. In that vein $10k for solar and another whatever to upgrade our 110 year old house to more than 100A service is a lot of PBRs. I just don't see the benefit since I put maybe 5k miles on my truck a year and her Forester just turned over 30k on its clock at 4 years old. It'll take a century to make it economical even at $5 or $10 per gallon.
 
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nakman

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Imo there just isn't an ROI on going to an electric vehicle, ever. So do it because you want one, but don't expect that you'll ever save money compared to gas, particularly if you factor in the actual cost of the new EV vs. keeping the old ICE running...
 

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Are you also taking into account things like oil change, timing belt, coolant flush, brake replacement etc? EVs have very low maintenance requirements compared to an ICE vehicle. I noticed that coming from a Subaru doing 3000 mile oil changes and driving 30k a year it was a big deal.
 

mcgaskins

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Imo there just isn't an ROI on going to an electric vehicle, ever. So do it because you want one, but don't expect that you'll ever save money compared to gas, particularly if you factor in the actual cost of the new EV vs. keeping the old ICE running...

I have an anecdote that I think will change your perception on this because one of the main reasons I like EVs is because I think ROI is one of the biggest reasons to go electric.

In July 2019, I bought Tesla Model 3 Performance (stealth model with the 18" wheels) for $49.9k before almost $8k in tax incentives. I took it to Bandimere the third time I drove it. I drove it through 14" of unplowed snow. I tracked it. I drove it harder than I have ever driven a car in my life on a regular basis. I commuted in it about 50 miles a day. I took it on road trips including from Newport Beach to Denver in winter. Basically, I did not baby it in any way, and in 7k miles it cost me $0 in maintenance, $0 in repairs, $0 in mods. I plugged in at home where we saw our electricity bill increase by around $25 a month, and before I hit the race track or on road trips I hit up Superchargers that cost me about $150 in that time frame. But here is the best part - when I decided to move on from that car, I sold it for $49.95k - $50 more than I paid for it brand new (again this is before any incentives), and in reality I could sell it for even more today if I still had it even with 10k or 20k miles on it.

If you compare that car to its peers like the BMW M3 which is slower, that same ownership period would have likely cost ~$10-25k more simply in depreciation alone before you count any repairs, maintenance or mods - especially tires. Other than very low volume special vehicles (which you then cannot drive especially not like I did), there really isn't a cheaper new car to own, so purely from a financial standpoint it makes a TON of sense. Add in the fact it does 0-60 in under 3 seconds (measured by me using a Dragy GPS performance meter), quarter mile in 11.59 (measured by Bandimere with time slips - oh and that's before the car got a 5% power boost for free over the air), accelerates faster than a Porsche 918 and essentially every single street legal ICE vehicle on the planet that costs under $1M from 20-70mph, gets better for free all the time with software updates, is one of the safest cars ever made, costs essentially $0 in maintenance besides tires, wipers and washer fluid, and is one of the smartest vehicles ever made with insanely good tech, sound system, features, autonomous driving and more. There is nothing better than having a car that can essentially drive itself through rush hour traffic while you relax and then turn off Autopilot and embarrass a Ferrari in a race next to you.

When I had the Tesla in SoCal, literally no one would race me other than other Teslas and funny enough a Chevy Bolt lol. I was in the middle lane of a intersection on the PCH with a 55 mph speed limit and arrived first at a long stop light. A BMW M8 pulled up next to me on one side, and a Ferrari Portofino pulled up to the other side. I was practically salivating and eased my head against the head rest and was ready to throw down when it turned it green. The light turned green, and I literally waited for them to jump to give no doubt about leaving the line early. Guess what happened? They didn't move an inch :ROFLMAO: Out in CA, the secret is out and literally no one will race you because the instant torque, zero wheelspin, immediate traction of an EV - even a "cheap" $50k Model 3 Performance on snow rated all seasons - will destroy just about anything out there. The fact you get the laundry list of benefits on top of that for a car that cost me $0 to own (actually made money when you think about the tax credits) is what made me a solid believer. My only complaint was that I couldn't get that kinda performance in the Land Cruiser form factor, but when I learned about Rivian it was enough for me to not only order one but to quit my job and move across the company to work for them.

PS - notice I never even mentioned anything about zero emissions or efficiency. If the car got 10mpg but could still do everything above, especially related to depreciation, I would still buy it because this is what happened on the third time I drove it with about 80 miles on it and how it did a few months after:



 

60wag

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Love the Bandimere video.

Living on a county highway makes me impatient for the day where "performance" exhaust systems become very rare. The morons will still be passing into oncoming traffic but at least I won't have to listen to them doing it.
 

DaveInDenver

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Are you also taking into account things like oil change, timing belt, coolant flush, brake replacement etc? EVs have very low maintenance requirements compared to an ICE vehicle. I noticed that coming from a Subaru doing 3000 mile oil changes and driving 30k a year it was a big deal.
Completely legitimate point.

Let's say the fuel cost for a Subaru 15k/year is $3,000 in gasoline (at $5/gal at 25 MPG).

A few data sources about Subaru maintenance:

Call it $4,500 in maintenance ($900/year) plus $735 over 5 years. So a 10 year cost of ownership after purchase is $10,470 plus gasoline = $40,470 to get 150,000 miles.

I turn my own wrenches so my maintenance budget is quite a bit lower but assuming shop rates it's probably fair. So far I'm averaging about $500/year doing oil changes at 5k intervals and a set of tires at 30k.

Doing 15k/year in an EV with 84 MPGe is 6 MW-hr/year so at 13¢/kW-hr is $780 per year. Data indicates that Tesla lose about 3% of battery capacity per 10k miles.


So for 10 years $7,800 in fuel and a new battery pack (note that you'll have lost about 45% of range/capacity at 150k) looks to be $16,550 if you pay out of pocket.


So that makes $24,350 for 10 years of ownership, if the loss of range is tolerable, after initial purchase.

If you determine that you must retain a minimum of 90% of the original range then the calculation is way different. Although the question of warranty is invoked at some point apparently. So I'm not sure how to come up with an acceptable loss of capacity in that case.

Some of this is anticipated in the new price of EVs and why a Leaf is MSRP of $31k while a similarly small Versa is $16k. So total cost of ownership starts to balance overall when you include the original purchase. Also can't necessarily count on EV always being subsidized with tax incentives. Eventually the gubermint will want their pound of flesh (like the EV registration fee likely going up).

 
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AlpineAccess

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I just want an electric truck for towing and for not having to go to gas stations. And for going crazy fast, and autopilot. And insanely good traction and low maintenance. Also it heating up and cooling down in my driveway without it idling for a long time. And 360 cameras. And no catalytic converters to steal. Also instant on demand power and mad torque. And being able to run power tools off it or back up my refrigerator or run my furnace blower during a power outage. And it being quiet and unlock from my cell phone.
 

mcgaskins

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Completely legitimate point.

Let's say the fuel cost for a Subaru 15k/year is $3,000 in gasoline (at $5/gal at 25 MPG).

A few data sources about Subaru maintenance:

Call it $4,500 in maintenance ($900/year) plus $735 over 5 years. So a 10 year cost of ownership after purchase is $10,470 plus gasoline = $40,470 to get 150,000 miles.

I turn my own wrenches so my maintenance budget is quite a bit lower but assuming shop rates it's probably fair. So far I'm averaging about $500/year doing oil changes at 5k intervals and a set of tires at 30k.

Doing 15k/year in an EV with 84 MPGe is 6 MW-hr/year so at 13¢/kW-hr is $780 per year. Data indicates that Tesla lose about 3% of battery capacity per 10k miles.


So for 10 years $7,800 in fuel and a new battery pack (note that you'll have lost about 45% of range/capacity at 150k) looks to be $16,550 if you pay out of pocket.


So that makes $24,350 for 10 years of ownership, if the loss of range is tolerable, after initial purchase.

If you determine that you must retain a minimum of 90% of the original range then the calculation is way different. Although the question of warranty is invoked at some point apparently. So I'm not sure how to come up with an acceptable loss of capacity in that case.

Some of this is anticipated in the new price of EVs and why a Leaf is MSRP of $31k while a similarly small Versa is $16k. So total cost of ownership starts to balance overall when you include the original purchase. Also can't necessarily count on EV always being subsidized with tax incentives. Eventually the gubermint will want their pound of flesh (like the EV registration fee likely going up).


So what's the data on how many battery packs have needed to be replaced on a Model 3? What's the data on how many Subarus need head gaskets and cooling systems replaced? ;)

Your model assumes you will need to replace a battery pack due to degradation after 10 years and 150k miles, but the data does not support that theory. Of course no Model 3 is over 10 years old at this point, but many have been put through the ringer as Uber drivers among other occupations that require high mileage accumulation. In a sample size of 2,636 Model 3s it shows most have over 90% battery capacity after 100k miles (https://insideevs.com/news/375459/tesla-model-3-50k-miles-battery-degradation/), but the sample size in your example is one vehicle. One vehicle that also admittedly has not followed best practices in charging according the article, and also has not experienced any failures or problems yet - just a theoretical extrapolation of what might happen in the future. I'd theorize a Subaru would have a head gasket or other major issue long before a Model 3 requires a new battery pack.

I have had 2 Model 3s now, and neither lost any range in the ~15k hard miles I put on them. But you know what did happen? I got a software update that actually gave me MORE range than when the car was new. The warranty on the battery in my Model 3 Performance was 8 years and 120k miles and guarantees at least 70% of the original capacity at that point. What is the warranty like for the powertrain on a Subaru or any other car for that matter at 120k miles?

The other issue with your model is that it does not consider depreciation which is almost always the most expensive part of owning a vehicle. How much is a gas powered Subaru going to be worth in 10 years as a percent of its original value vs a Tesla? Just pull up Autotrader or Kelly Blue Book and run the numbers - the Tesla Model 3 is a resale king. The facts support that the Model 3 has lower depreciation, lower maintenance, lower repairs, and is more efficient, and that is in today's reality. EVs will only get less expensive, more efficient, and more compelling in the future. That's not my biased opinion - that's reality. I have 2 Land Cruisers, a diesel Sprinter, and a gas Honda in the driveway, and as much as I love them I realize their days are numbered. That's hard for a lot of people to accept, and I get it. I fought hard against the idea until I test drove a Model 3 Performance, and it truly, literally changed my life.

I have one request for those who would like to disparage EVs in this thread - go drive a Tesla, or when my Rivian is here, come drive it. I am willing to wager you will think very differently after the experience.
 

DaveInDenver

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So what's the data on how many battery packs have needed to be replaced on a Model 3? What's the data on how many Subarus need head gaskets and cooling systems replaced? ;)

Your model assumes you will need to replace a battery pack due to degradation after 10 years and 150k miles, but the data does not support that theory. Of course no Model 3 is over 10 years old at this point, but many have been put through the ringer as Uber drivers among other occupations that require high mileage accumulation. In a sample size of 2,636 Model 3s it shows most have over 90% battery capacity after 100k miles (https://insideevs.com/news/375459/tesla-model-3-50k-miles-battery-degradation/), but the sample size in your example is one vehicle. One vehicle that also admittedly has not followed best practices in charging according the article, and also has not experienced any failures or problems yet - just a theoretical extrapolation of what might happen in the future. I'd theorize a Subaru would have a head gasket or other major issue long before a Model 3 requires a new battery pack.

I have had 2 Model 3s now, and neither lost any range in the ~15k hard miles I put on them. But you know what did happen? I got a software update that actually gave me MORE range than when the car was new. The warranty on the battery in my Model 3 Performance was 8 years and 120k miles and guarantees at least 70% of the original capacity at that point. What is the warranty like for the powertrain on a Subaru or any other car for that matter at 120k miles?

The other issue with your model is that it does not consider depreciation which is almost always the most expensive part of owning a vehicle. How much is a gas powered Subaru going to be worth in 10 years as a percent of its original value vs a Tesla? Just pull up Autotrader or Kelly Blue Book and run the numbers - the Tesla Model 3 is a resale king. The facts support that the Model 3 has lower depreciation, lower maintenance, lower repairs, and is more efficient, and that is in today's reality. EVs will only get less expensive, more efficient, and more compelling in the future. That's not my biased opinion - that's reality. I have 2 Land Cruisers, a diesel Sprinter, and a gas Honda in the driveway, and as much as I love them I realize their days are numbered. That's hard for a lot of people to accept, and I get it. I fought hard against the idea until I test drove a Model 3 Performance, and it truly, literally changed my life.

I have one request for those who would like to disparage EVs in this thread - go drive a Tesla, or when my Rivian is here, come drive it. I am willing to wager you will think very differently after the experience.
You're right, should have used a Toyota Corolla instead of a Subaru.

Anyway maybe if you read it without rose colored glasses I said "legitimate point" and found that the cost would be less over 150k. Fuel costs are clearly lower. Even factoring in higher purchase price the Leaf looked to be maybe $10k cheaper to own for 10 years in that analysis.

But batteries do not last forever. You will lose range. Lithium-ion is understood pretty well and aging is well modeled. It's known to be nonlinear, especially dependent on how fast you recharge them (actually fast charging at 4C is better than 1C) for various reasons. But no matter, they hit a knee and drop fast. That might be at cycle 300, might be 600. This is true of laptops and phones. There is a lot of industry data here. So I posited what is acceptable and acknowledged that the example I found (exhaustive research - nope) said theirs would qualify for a warranty. Electric machines wear - bearings, brushes, windings. You know that's true from your alternators and winches. They do have some gear trains and axles, wheel bearings, brakes to deal with just the same as now. Maintenance will be a budget factor.

Also Subaru, like Tesla in that example, will warranty headgaskets if they fail arbitrarily "early." So outliers on the curve exist. But how long are HGs or any other part supposed to last? The cost of maintenance is an average, so some people presumably spent a lot, some not much. That's how averages work.

Eventually the business side will sort out what's covered verses what you'll be expected to pay for. Just like they have with internal combustion. If you want to throw in anecdotes it's in fact zero maintenance for a new Subaru for the first 2 years since they will do it for free if you want. But it's not valid data in a 10-year calculation. They also give you a powertrain warranty but eventually you have to accept responsibility for owning and repairing it. And I don't deny an EV has fewer moving parts so the expectation should be higher reliability. But the parts they do have are big and expensive. The market now is in its infancy. Nonaffluent people will be rebuilding battery packs and motors in their garages (if they allow it, the general trend is away from ownership and repair-ability but that's not just cars) to keep costs down where currently a pack is mostly whole-scale replaced. You see that with Priuses, people using them for donors and rebuilding them, so it'll happen.

And there are uses where electric won't have the efficiency advantage. Some of this was learned 100 years ago when electric, steam and gasoline were all first tried. The convenience of liquid fuel was not to be neglected when distances increased. Also for work gasoline and diesel presented an advantage. Electric was great for town cars. It does make a ton of sense for commuter (incidentally this is why I have little interest in an EV, neither of us have a commute and errands can be done on bicycle with a trailer, which is a fraction the cost of a car of any kind). The hybrid approach won out for locomotives and I think it's unfortunate that the market wasn't allowed to fully develop for hybrid trucks. I'd like to have seen a hybrid Hilux/Tacoma. Maybe we still will, I dunno. I honestly think a diesel hybrid Tacoma would be awesome, seriously awesome.

Also it should be noted that I'd have to consume 8 hours round trip worth of gasoline to even see and test a Tesla... There's a couple around town but I don't know anyone personally with an EV and haven't been in one. So it's completely true I have no first hand knowledge. The irony is that I have seen Rivians, at least camouflaged ones.
 
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J1000

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I had bad degradation in my LEAF. When I first got it I could do 90+ miles no problem on a good day. When I sold it I could only do more like 70-80 miles. I was driving to Boulder and back every day which was 72 miles round trip and it just wasn't working. I still sold it for $900 more than I paid for it.
 

rover67

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Dave, think about it like sell the car before the tires are worn out kinda thing. similar to why it actually kinda might make sense to buy a new Toyota truck for say 42k out the door when a used one is 30k with 100k miles on it. but don't buy it and keep it till its fully depreciated, sell it with like say 30k on it.

Run those numbers for cost of ownership vs say buying something and keeping it till it has 180k miles on it and is basically fully depreciated.

None of the maintenance cost matters. sell it before the warranty is up. move on to the next.
 

J1000

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The reason there are no diesel hybrids is because the efficiency range of diesel doesn't overlap well with EV drive. For instance diesels are more expensive to make and heavier, and hybrids also add weight and expense. The diesel makes great torque at the low end of the RPM range, exactly where the electric motor also makes great torque. But at higher speeds the diesel drops off and so does the electric motor. Small gas engines don't make the majority of their torque until 3000-4000 RPM so they compliment eachother and cover eachother's weaknesses. Lastly, gas engines are really conducive to shutting off and spinning up again really quickly because of lightweight rotating assemblies vs. diesel, as well as faster to warm up. Also modern ignition and fuel injection tech means the gas engine can start up almost instantaneously and not have to crank over several rotations (stop/start features of modern cars that will start the engine before you can move your foot off the brake to the accel pedal).

Lastly, hybrids are billed as "green vehicles" and diesel is not green in the slightest. So much more particulate matter and other stuff. Modern diesels need DEF and need to have "regen" cycles where they turn the exhaust into a flamethrower and blast everything out of the particulate filters. The regen cycle would have to be done way more often on a diesel engine that does a bunch of starts and stops per drive cycle instead of just once (see CO school buses that regularly have to drive up and down the highway to complete the regen drive cycle that can't be done on a start/stop school run: https://www.thedenverchannel.com/tr...ra-public-school-buses-drive-up-and-down-i-70).

Lastly, diesels are already more efficient and taking a car from 30 to 40 mpg is not nearly as much fuel savings as taking a car from 25 to 35 mpg.

My great-great grandfather had a steam car. You could fill it up with trash and water and drive all over the place!
 
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DouglasVB

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I'm just sitting over here wondering if the Alpha Wolf and Wolf+ are going to be real products or are vaporware like so many other electric car concepts.

And when is Toyota going to make an electric Toyota Pickup-sized 4x4?
 

nuclearlemon

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I took it on road trips including from Newport Beach to Denver in winter.

curious, since you're the only one i know who has actual cross country experience. what kind of miles between charges and how long was the charging. as a commuter, ev interests me (60+ miles round trip daily), but i would also want it for family visits to idaho.
Lastly, hybrids are billed as "green vehicles" and diesel is not green in the slightest. So much more particulate matter and other stuff. Modern diesels need DEF and need to have "regen" cycles where they turn the exhaust into a flamethrower and blast everything out of the particulate filters. The regen cycle would have to be done way more often on a diesel engine that does a bunch of starts and stops per drive cycle instead of just once (see CO school buses that regularly have to drive up and down the highway to complete the regen drive cycle that can't be done on a start/stop school run: https://www.thedenverchannel.com/tr...ra-public-school-buses-drive-up-and-down-i-70).
diesel engines do not NEED def. the government forces emissions. the navistar test center has proven that a de-emissioned engine in proper tune burns cleaner than emissioned engines. busses must not have a forced regen option. weird since, yes, stop and go does require more regens to clear soot build up. fwiw, at least one school district in the denver metro area has started ordering electric busses. navistar will be delivering one to mccandless truck center for someone this summer.
 

riderjgs

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The true test is now upon us. America's most popular pickup in EV form, looks familiar rather than like a wheeled space ship, and comes in at less than half the price of a Rivian. Warranteed by one of the largest and longest-term auto manufacturers on the planet, the company that invented mass production, with dealerships virtually everywhere. What happens with Ford’s EV F-150 will be interesting.
 
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mcgaskins

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The true test is now upon us. America's most popular pickup in EV form, looks familiar rather than like a wheeled space ship, and comes in at less than half the price of a Rivian. Warranteed by one of the largest and longest-term auto manufacturers on the planet, the company that invented mass production, with dealerships virtually everywhere. What happens with Ford’s EV F-150 will be interesting.

I'm excited about the F150 Lightning EV and think this competition is great for the industry and benefits the consumer greatly. I will caution about the "price" however. It's true the absolute base model truck with an estimated 230 mile range is currently advertised at ~$40k, but look at the image below for the full story which shows it will go up to over $90k for the 300 mile range version. That is quite the spread, and I am confident they will not be rushing to build the $40k version because there is no margin in it at that price point.

When Tesla unveiled the Model 3 in 2016 as a "$35k car", they started delivering the most expensive models first (roughly double $), and they only sold a very small number of the $35k cars because they weren't making any money on them. They quickly pulled the cheapest model off the market saying no one wanted it, but analysts pointed to margin rather than demand for the reason. Now the cheapest model Tesla sells 5 years after the 3 launch is $40k with no federal tax rebate, so it makes sense Ford will not be rushing to sell $40k EV F150s and will instead likely focus on the margin friendly more expensive models that fall right in line with the Rivian price. Also keep in mind the Rivian is more performance oriented with more range, much faster acceleration, and was designed with off road prowess at the top of the list whereas the Ford is more of a traditional pickup.

Capture.JPG
 
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