Toyota announcement

[mcgaskins]

Best selling car in the world at 267k, but Toyota alone sold 10.5M vehicles in 2022. The best selling is 10% of one companies total sales.
America made or assembled in America? That rating is a bit opaque on what’s being weighted in that calculation.
Edited to fix my math.

267k per quarter for 1M a year is 10% of the overall Toyota sales.

It's always hard to comment on these threads because people are firmly convinced of their position without looking at the big picture. The notion I addressed is there isn't real demand for EVs or it's overstated, and literally the highest sales volume car in the entire world for the first quarter of this year is an EV. That's the point and that's what the data shows. Tesla didn't even exist 20 years ago and now rivals the biggest names in the industry, builds the "most American" cars (this has been proven with data numerous times), creates high paying American jobs, provides insane stock returns for every day investors, pension funds, municipalities (not to mention its market cap is the largest in the world and 4x larger than Toyota's), and more is pretty amazing. I'm not trying to convince anyone to like Tesla, but what they've done in a short time is incredible and has created the biggest shift the auto industry has even seen.

 

[Stuckinthe80s]

It seems like there may be two different conversations here:
1. Total number of cars sold of a given brand and total cars sold globally
2. Total number of cars sold of a specific model

Also, although I agree that 267k units sold of just one specific EV, and even percentages as low as 5% certainly indicates demand, I also agree that there isn't a robust enough supply chain established to keep up with said demand year over year. The problem only gets worse if demand goes up.

My problem aligns with something Dave mentioned and it is that we (America) are talking out of both sides of our mouth when it comes to encouraging more EV sales: we want people to buy more EVs but we also want to limit the action of tapping into the resources required to make more EVs.

 

[satchel]

It's always hard to comment on these threads because people are firmly convinced of their position without looking at the big picture. The notion I addressed is there isn't real demand for EVs or it's overstated, and literally the highest sales volume car in the entire world for the first quarter of this year is an EV. That's the point and that's what the data shows. Tesla didn't even exist 20 years ago and now rivals the biggest names in the industry, builds the "most American" cars (this has been proven with data numerous times), creates high paying American jobs, provides insane stock returns for every day investors, pension funds, municipalities (not to mention its market cap is the largest in the world and 4x larger than Toyota's), and more is pretty amazing. I'm not trying to convince anyone to like Tesla, but what they've done in a short time is incredible and has created the biggest shift the auto industry has even seen.

For the record, I wasn't disagreeing with you. I was correcting the math from the prior post and agree that it is crazy they are making 10% of Toyota total sales with one car.

 

[mcgaskins]

For the record, I wasn't disagreeing with you. I was correcting the math from the prior post and agree that it is crazy they are making 10% of Toyota total sales with one car.

Apologies if it came across the wrong way - it's always hard to get context right in this format!

It seems like there may be two different conversations here:
1. Total number of cars sold of a given brand and total cars sold globally
2. Total number of cars sold of a specific model

Also, although I agree that 267k units sold of just one specific EV, and even percentages as low as 5% certainly indicates demand, I also agree that there isn't a robust enough supply chain established to keep up with said demand year over year. The problem only gets worse if demand goes up.

My problem aligns with something Dave mentioned and it is that we (America) are talking out of both sides of our mouth when it comes to encouraging more EV sales: we want people to buy more EVs but we also want to limit the action of tapping into the resources required to make more EVs.

I completely agree Nic and the Inflation Reduction Act, aside from being one of the most poorly named pieces of legislation ever, actually somewhat slowed EV adoption and created a quagmire for the domestic supply chain. There are incredibly rich lithium deposits in several places in the US that can't be mined due to environmental regulations, but the IRA (in a phased approach) requires a domestic supply chain to take advantage of tax incentives. If you want to go down a rabbit hole, google "Tiehm's buckwheat" and lithium. I've been following the salacious and fascinating drama there for well over a decade. We need better cooperation between business leaders, subject matter experts/scientists, environmentalists, and policy makers - what could possibly go wrong, right?

 

[J1000]

Government priorities are all over the place. I saw this video about why there are no small trucks and it's because of a stupid equation the EPA came up with in 2008. Basically if a car has a bigger footprint (wheelbase x track width) it can have worse MPG. But it's completely illogical so manufactures make larger cars so the MPG targets can be lower. So if Toyota remade their 90s mini trucks it would have to hit over 50 MPG which is just impossible.

It's basically killed all small cars in the USA. I love small cars like hatchbacks and city cars but it's literally impossible for a manufacturer to sell them.... because they are small.

It's totally backwards and illogical on all fronts. It's also the reason why Dodge Hellcats and the like have a massive track width that barely fit on the road; if they make it that wide then it has a lower MPG target.

 

[gungriffin]

The thing is that the Toyota EV they hype up about having 900 miles of range, charge in 10 minutes etc etc. Well it ain't going to charge in 10 minutes unless you have your own substation. We're talking about 500, 700, 1000 KW of power to make that happen. For comparison a 240 volt, 50 amp socket (for welder, dryer, etc) is 12 KW and that's about the most that any average house in the USA has without a LOT of work and money.

The increase in the base load power in the US would be off the charts if everyone were driving these vehicles. Also, so many states want to charge these cars at night with solar...

 

[gungriffin]

Government priorities are all over the place. I saw this video about why there are no small trucks and it's because of a stupid equation the EPA came up with in 2008. Basically if a car has a bigger footprint (wheelbase x track width) it can have worse MPG. But it's completely illogical so manufactures make larger cars so the MPG targets can be lower. So if Toyota remade their 90s mini trucks it would have to hit over 50 MPG which is just impossible.

It's basically killed all small cars in the USA. I love small cars like hatchbacks and city cars but it's literally impossible for a manufacturer to sell them.... because they are small.

It's totally backwards and illogical on all fronts. It's also the reason why Dodge Hellcats and the like have a massive track width that barely fit on the road; if they make it that wide then it has a lower MPG target.

It makes perfects sense.... So long as you are thinking of it as a government program

 

[DaveInDenver]

The increase in the base load power in the US would be off the charts if everyone were driving these vehicles. Also, so many states want to charge these cars at night with solar...

Numbers can be put to it. A Model 3 efficiency is claimed 358 miles for a 82 kWh battery. So 82 kWh / 358 miles = 0.22 kWh/mile or a 40 miles round trip takes 9 kWh.

Jerry, America's AllCar™ app, is the easiest way to compare car insurance policies, refinance car loans, estimate repair costs, and more. 4.7/5 rating.

Jerry AllCar™ App: Get Car Insurance, Loan Refinance, Repair Estimates, Driving Score and more.

getjerry.com

Using a 120V/15A circuit, 120 x 15 = 1800 watts so 9000 / 1800 = 5 hours to put back into the battery (assuming perfect efficiency, which isn't the case but just for sake of calculating).

BTW, 40 miles isn't just a random number.

National Household Travel Survey Daily Travel Quick Facts | Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Daily Travel is a trip from one point to another on a single day.

www.bts.gov

In 2021 the average U.S. household used 10,632 kWh per year or a daily average of 29.12 kWh. That means this average American would use about 9 / 29 = 31% more electricity commuting in an EV.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

Bigger scale, the USA averages about 11 billion miles traveled per day. So if that was all electric using the Tesla 3 efficiency there would need to be 11,000,000,000 x 0.22 = 2,420,000,000 (2.42 billion) kWh of electricity to run it.

In 2022 the U.S. generated a total of 4,243 billion kWh. So that would represent a daily average of 4,243 / 365 = 11.624 billion kWh.

Electricity generation, capacity, and sales in the United States - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. annual electricity generation and generation capacity by fuel/energy sources and definitions of important electricity terms.

www.eia.gov

So around 2.42 / 11.624 = 20.81% more generation is required to fully electrify the auto fleet using those statistics. So a very rough number the grid needs to grow 25%. That means taking none offline and adding 25%. That could certainly come in the form of distributed generation on lots of houses, which I think is the assumption made.

 

[mcgaskins]

Numbers can be put to it. A Model 3 efficiency is claimed 358 miles for a 82 kWh battery. So 82 kWh / 358 miles = 0.22 kWh/mile or a 40 miles round trip takes 9 kWh.

Jerry, America's AllCar™ app, is the easiest way to compare car insurance policies, refinance car loans, estimate repair costs, and more. 4.7/5 rating.

Jerry AllCar™ App: Get Car Insurance, Loan Refinance, Repair Estimates, Driving Score and more.

getjerry.com

Using a 120V/15A circuit, 120 x 15 = 1800 watts so 9000 / 1800 = 5 hours to put back into the battery (assuming perfect efficiency, which isn't the case but just for sake of calculating).

BTW, 40 miles isn't just a random number.

National Household Travel Survey Daily Travel Quick Facts | Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Daily Travel is a trip from one point to another on a single day.

www.bts.gov

In 2021 the average U.S. household used 10,632 kWh per year or a daily average of 29.12 kWh. That means this average American would use about 9 / 29 = 31% more electricity commuting in an EV.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

Bigger scale, the USA averages about 11 billion miles traveled per day. So if that was all electric using the Tesla 3 efficiency there would need to be 11,000,000,000 x 0.22 = 2,420,000,000 (2.42 billion) kWh of electricity to run it.

In 2022 the U.S. generated a total of 4,243 billion kWh. So that would represent a daily average of 4,243 / 365 = 11.624 billion kWh.

Electricity generation, capacity, and sales in the United States - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. annual electricity generation and generation capacity by fuel/energy sources and definitions of important electricity terms.

www.eia.gov

So around 2.42 / 11.624 = 20.81% more generation is required to fully electrify the auto fleet using those statistics. So a very rough number the grid needs to grow 25%. That means taking none offline and adding 25%. That could certainly come in the form of distributed generation on lots of houses, which I think is the assumption made.

Great analysis. Something to add to the conversation is that most people who are fortunate to own a home AND have the ability to add level 2 charging aka a dedicated 240v 60a circuit typically charge off peak from late at night until early in the morning (the Model Y gets 44 miles of range per hour on a 60a circuit). Most also have the ability to schedule charging depending on what makes the most sense, so demand can be “smoothed”. I fully recognize many people - people who don’t own homes, houses without electrical panel capacity, apartment dwellers, etc - don’t have this luxury which is a problem that needs to be solved. Another interesting topic is vehicle to grid or bidirectional charging where electricity stored in battery packs can be sent back to the house or grid when necessary which is super cool. Of course that again has barriers of expensive equipment needed to make it work which also needs to be solved and more accessible.

 

[gungriffin]

Numbers can be put to it. A Model 3 efficiency is claimed 358 miles for a 82 kWh battery. So 82 kWh / 358 miles = 0.22 kWh/mile or a 40 miles round trip takes 9 kWh.

Jerry, America's AllCar™ app, is the easiest way to compare car insurance policies, refinance car loans, estimate repair costs, and more. 4.7/5 rating.

Jerry AllCar™ App: Get Car Insurance, Loan Refinance, Repair Estimates, Driving Score and more.

getjerry.com

Using a 120V/15A circuit, 120 x 15 = 1800 watts so 9000 / 1800 = 5 hours to put back into the battery (assuming perfect efficiency, which isn't the case but just for sake of calculating).

BTW, 40 miles isn't just a random number.

National Household Travel Survey Daily Travel Quick Facts | Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Daily Travel is a trip from one point to another on a single day.

www.bts.gov

In 2021 the average U.S. household used 10,632 kWh per year or a daily average of 29.12 kWh. That means this average American would use about 9 / 29 = 31% more electricity commuting in an EV.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

Bigger scale, the USA averages about 11 billion miles traveled per day. So if that was all electric using the Tesla 3 efficiency there would need to be 11,000,000,000 x 0.22 = 2,420,000,000 (2.42 billion) kWh of electricity to run it.

In 2022 the U.S. generated a total of 4,243 billion kWh. So that would represent a daily average of 4,243 / 365 = 11.624 billion kWh.

Electricity generation, capacity, and sales in the United States - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. annual electricity generation and generation capacity by fuel/energy sources and definitions of important electricity terms.

www.eia.gov

So around 2.42 / 11.624 = 20.81% more generation is required to fully electrify the auto fleet using those statistics. So a very rough number the grid needs to grow 25%. That means taking none offline and adding 25%. That could certainly come in the form of distributed generation on lots of houses, which I think is the assumption made.

This is less than I thought it would be. Thanks for writing it out.

The comment about solar was more of a joke. Mainly because many people likely charge at night at home, but that is when solar is not producing. Still not likely a big issue though.

 

[ScaldedDog]

Is using a Model 3 - basically a large Honda Civic - and assuming perfect efficiency and off the lot (summertime) range numbers an accurate representation of what an electric replacement fleet would look like? It makes for an interesting exercise, but dramatically underestimates the electric equivalent of what people really do today.

Yet again, I'm glad I'm old.

Mark

 

[DaveInDenver]

Is using a Model 3 - basically a large Honda Civic - and assuming perfect efficiency and off the lot (summertime) range numbers an accurate representation of what an electric replacement fleet would look like? It makes for an interesting exercise, but dramatically underestimates the electric equivalent of what people really do today.

Yet again, I'm glad I'm old.

Mark

Of course it's not representative, just picked a starting point. This analysis spirals deep. It doesn't account for any economics like gasoline vs electricity prices, unit replacement cost, using your household or business power vs buying it from a power point (this is an order of magnitude more expensive). It may over or under estimate it but I doubt it's that far off. There's 11,925 power plants in the U.S. so we have to *add* around 4,000 more to fully convert from drilling and refining oil to electricity. That's a significant change. It took 141 years to arrive at the grid we have now, much of which is itself in need of updating before we stress it further.

 

[mcgaskins]

Saw this article today saying Tesla (with basically only 2 volume models) outsold Toyota in California in Q2. Of course everyone knows California is an EV heavy state, but it’s also the largest car market in the US which is quite significant.

In full disclosure, I bought a new 2023 Prius in late May and have 5k miles on it already. My wife has a Model Y and I personally much prefer the Prius. It’s slower, smaller, has less space, but it’s a blast to drive, plenty quick, absolutely gorgeous, and gets 55mpg. The biggest issue with it is it’s hard to get ahold of because of supply chain stuff according to Toyota. If Toyota supplied more strong hybrids like the new Prius, they’d likely be on top in my opinion.

Tesla now outsells Toyota in California

Tesla has the two bestselling cars in California by a ridiculous margin – and we are not just talking about...

electrek.co

 

[DaveInDenver]

To your point @mcgaskins

Toyota's Q2 performance in CA must have been offset by a pretty good Q1 as they still have the slightly larger market share. It's a significant achievement.